"The Situation Is Desperate: Women Will Raise The Retirement Age"

The economist predicted the actions of the authorities in Belarus.

There are no plans to raise the retirement age in Belarus, said First Deputy Chairman of Minsk city executive committee Nadezhda Lazarevich. According to her, instead, the authorities are aimed at preparing a "working shift," to improve the demographic situation and take care of the family institution. "Zerkalo" asked economist Liv Lvovsky whether such a plan would work to solve problems with pensions.

"There are no plans (raising the retirement age. - Ed.), and in general it's not an end in itself," said Nadezhda Lazarevich at a meeting with the staff of "Minskzhelezobeton". - The task is to nurture the labor shift and improve the demographic situation. These are interrelated phenomena. Hence the importance of taking care of the youth, the health of the younger generation, increasing the birth rate, the institution of the family in general."

Academic Director of BEROC Lev Lvovsky believes that these statements do not contain any concrete plans, instead they are general formulations:

- This statement seems rather empty - just to say. They want to "nurture the labor shift." What's the alternative - don't nurture and kill? Or the words about the institution of the family - do we have something wrong with it? And how is the deputy chairman of Minsk city executive committee going to take care of the family institution? These are general phrases. And what exactly are they going to do, for example, to increase the birth rate? - asks the economist.

Analyst notes that the bill to raise the retirement age is being prepared and discussed, not in the structures of the Minsk authorities, but in higher authorities.

- We have big problems (with demography and prospects of pension provision. - Editor's note). If they could be solved simply by nurturing a new workforce and taking care of the family institution, Alexander Lukashenko would probably not be talking about 150 thousand Pakistanis, and demographic problems would not be brought to a high level. They are discussed at the meetings from different fronts.

Solving the demographic issue is a big and complex process, Lev Lvovsky notes.

- Like any big problem, it consists of many sub-problems. Some things can be done very quickly. For example, opening or legalizing private nurseries as well as schools. Or to change the legislation so that it includes more flexible forms of work - this too can be done quite quickly. But so far we do not see any changes in this sphere, except for the worse. Like, for example, the closure of private kindergartens and schools. All this also affects the birth rate.

The economist recalls the decision of the authorities to abolish from this year the restrictions on payments for working pensioners. Lev Lvovsky points out that there is no other movement in this direction or real solutions.

- There is talk about migration. Alexander Lukashenko is discussing with the leaders of other states to send migrants to us. This measure can help migration. But there is also a lot that should be done, but it is not happening. For example, we could at least take this sphere out from under the control of law enforcers.

What the authorities of the capital can do

Analyst notes that the situation in Minsk is not as acute as in the regions, because the capital feeds on them.

- Specifically in Minsk there are no problems with kindergartens in theory, but in practice there are. They are not located where families with children live. And this is quite a sphere of responsibility of Minsk City Executive Committee, - says Lev Lvovsky. - Or when they build a new house, they count how many children people have on average and plan a kindergarten. And then they start to build it only after the house is completed. But the kindergarten turns out to be insufficient, because there are more children in the new house than the average number of young families [in the city]. And, for example, in the city center, where the population is more elderly, schools and kindergartens with a lot of empty places.

"The situation is hopeless"

Officials assure time after time that there are no plans to raise the retirement age (examples 1, 2 and 3). Meanwhile, "Cyberpartisans" previously reported that in 2020, this measure for women, who now retire at 58, was discussed - it was promoted by the Ministry of Labor.

Lev Lvovsky recently noted on the air of "Euroradio" that there is a need to raise the retirement age for women in Belarus. He pointed out that now 10 working people in the country provide four pensioners with payments. By 2050, the proportion will change by more than 1.5 times. And by 2080, 10 workers will provide nine people with a well-deserved retirement.

- When this proportion changes, it is necessary to either charge more from the working people, or pay less to pensioners, or increase the number of working people, or reduce the number of recipients (i.e., raise the bar for retirement. - Ed. ed.), - said the economist, and then clarified: - The situation is hopeless, so I think that anyway women will raise the retirement age - men have nowhere to raise it.

Otherwise, according to the analyst, in 55 years it will be necessary to spend annually about 10% of GDP to close the deficit of the Social Security Fund for payments.

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