Lukashenko Told The Chinese A Primitive Conspiracy Theory

The issue of the border in the negotiations with the PRC was the main issue.

The greatest hopes for resolving the crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border rest on China. Chinese delegations visited Warsaw and Minsk. During the talks, Lukashenka sought to prove that Poland was artificially provoking the conflict, fulfilling the US order to the detriment of China's interests.

The conflict between Belarus and Poland over the border has become an international problem. Economists and businesses are counting losses, and politicians of different levels are discussing ways out of the crisis.

The greatest hopes are pinned on China. On the one hand, the Chinese economy suffers the most from this thrombus on the Belarusian-Polish border. On the other hand, everyone pays attention to China's growing international weight. The new superpower has to confirm its status. China does not hide that it has great ambitions, which was confirmed during the recent celebrations in Beijing on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

In this case, the closure of the Belarusian-Polish border directly affected China's interests. According to various estimates, from 92% to 98% of land transit in China's trade with Europe is carried out through the Belarusian-Polish border. The speed of delivery of goods from China to the EU is 5-7 days, which is on average 3-5 times faster than by sea. In addition, delivery by land is almost twice as cheap as by sea. And now this route is closed.

Not only Warsaw and Minsk, but also other international players are pinning their hopes on China. After all, if a state claims the status of a great power and cannot solve a problem that directly affects its interests, it is a certain blow to its prestige. It is necessary to confirm its status.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Warsaw on September 15. After the talks, the Polish edition of Newsweek, citing sources in the Polish Foreign Ministry, reported that Wang Yi allegedly made it clear to Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski that the Chinese authorities "will have an open conversation with Lukashenko" about the situation on the Polish border.

A week after this visit, a Chinese delegation headed by Li Xi, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, arrived in Minsk. That is, the head of the delegation is one of the seven top leaders of the People's Republic of China. This is a high level.

In the course of Li Xi's talks with Alexander Lukashenko, the issue of closing the Belarusian-Polish border was raised. One can assume that it was one of the main issues.

As one might expect, Lukashenko offered his version of the problem during the talks:

"There has been a lot of insinuations in the media recently, especially in connection with your visit to Belarus, about our relations with Poland and the closure of the border between Belarus and Poland. I realize that this is most likely an unfriendly move by the Poles - a political, some kind of image, probably, as the Poles believe, against the People's Republic of China. But not at all economic. Since an empire like China can easily handle this problem. But the topic sounds... This is not about Belarus. Well, Poland is playing the role of some kind of a jockey horse in favor of other states..."

If we translate this statement into an understandable language, Lukashenko wanted to prove the following:

1. The blame for the crisis on the border lies not on Belarus, but on Poland.

2. The "unfriendly step of the Poles" is only outwardly directed against Belarus ("it's not about Belarus"). In fact, it is a blow to China.

3. "Poland plays the role of some kind of a prancing horse in favor of other states." The other state is the United States. That is, on this horse sits the rider who rules it - the American. It is the US that seeks to weaken its main competitor - China. And Poland is an American puppet. Therefore, the matter here is not about economics, but about big geopolitics.

4. Belarus is a reliable ally of China, so all of Beijing's anger should be directed at Warsaw.

It is noteworthy that Lukashenko did not want to publicly develop this conspiracy theory, but offered Li Xi to talk privately to "tell him something and share our information on this topic." Why such secrets? Because he doesn't want to spoil the negotiation process with the US. Therefore, in the public part, there are only hints to be deciphered.

It is difficult to draw any conclusions about whether Lukashenko managed to convince the Chinese delegation with such primitive conspiracy theories. The traditions of Chinese diplomacy do not allow bringing conflict points into public view. The near future will show whether China's pressure on official Minsk was strong and effective. This will be assessed by whether migrant attacks on the border will stop, whether Andrzej Poczobut and monk Grzegorz Havel, who was declared a "spy," will be released.

Valeriy Karbalevich, Radye Svaboda

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