NATO Vs. Russia: Who Will Win

Here are a few scenarios.

Escalating incidents in the Baltic region - drones, airspace violations, interference with navigation - could escalate into a full-scale conflict between NATO and Russia, writes National Security Journal (translated by Charter97.org).

In the initial phase, NATO has an advantage in the air and at sea through reconnaissance, electronic attacks and precision strikes from a safe distance. Russia responds with massive missile strikes, dense air defenses, cyberattacks, and interference with navigation. Both sides will be under political, economic and humanitarian pressure.

Two scenarios for the end of the conflict look the most likely. The first is an "unscientific" war without the use of nuclear weapons, where the sides exhaust each other and conclude a truce based on the ratio of casualties to political risks. The second is limited nuclear use to force a cessation of hostilities, which breaks the taboo on the use of weapons of mass destruction and accelerates crisis instability.

For NATO, "victory" is limited to the defense of allied territory without crossing the nuclear threshold. For Russia, it is regime survival and a demonstration of its ability to dictate the terms of ending the conflict by deterring NATO's actions. On the battlefield, NATO wins, but the political and economic consequences offset these successes.

Even a minimal scenario leads to the destruction of infrastructure, economic crisis, and increased tension in Europe. The use of nuclear weapons makes the consequences catastrophic, setting a precedent for future conflicts.

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