The Economic Forecast For Belarus Has Sharply Deteriorated

Belarusian goods have nowhere to go.

Experts of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development have sharply worsened the economic forecast for Belarus. But even this pessimistic variant may turn out to be too optimistic. Because the Russian economy has disappointed even the pessimists. And Belarusian goods have nowhere to go from the Russian market, writes planbmedia.io

The expectations of the EBRD experts from the Belarusian economy were not very optimistic before. At least, not as optimistic as the expectations of the Belarusian government.

But still, back in May, the EBRD expected the Belarusian economy to grow by a solid 2.5% this year. However, the Belarusian economy failed to meet these expectations. According to the results of eight months, GDP growth amounted to only 1.6%. And that's only due to the record harvest.

So, the bank's expectations of the Belarusian economy have fallen by one and a half times in the new forecast. The EBRD experts predict that GDP growth in Belarus will amount to 1.7%.

"Given the increased dependence on the Russian economy and the slowdown in Russia, short-term economic prospects seem unfavorable," reads the review.

However, when this forecast was prepared, its authors could not take into account some newly discovered circumstances. And these circumstances are not very favorable for the Belarusian economy.

September 25, the Russian Ministry of Finance made the next budget adjustments. This is the second adjustment of the Russian budget this year. The projected budget deficit has been increased by 2 trillion Russian rubles, to 5.7 trillion.

But this is only a projected deficit. At the beginning of this year, Russia projected a deficit of 1.1 trillion. Given that the actual deficit is already five trillion rubles, and at the end of the year expenditures usually increase, there is a high probability that the balance will again be out of balance.

That is, Russia will have less money to help its Belarusian ally. After all, it is illogical to generously support the Belarusian authorities when they have to deny support to their own producers.

And secondly, it means that there will be fewer purchases of Belarusian products within the framework of Russian government programs. And the possibility to participate in the programs financed by the Russian budget has always been the main competitive advantage of Belarusian producers.

But there is less space on the Russian market, and the competition, accordingly, is bigger. Manufacturers of Russian trucks, tractors, combines and other agricultural machinery have already asked to limit Belarusian imports. And now producers of Russian cement are also asking for restrictions. So it is not for nothing that Lukashenko has been worried about Belarusian exports lately. Because Russia is big, and there is nowhere for Belarusian goods to go.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com