Russia Is Entering A Deep Demographic Crisis

The compensation mechanism no longer works.

In Russia, the birth rate has fallen to the level of the late 1990s, migration growth no longer saves, war losses and aging are forming a new demographic catastrophe.

This reports the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

The current demographic crisis in Russia looks more dangerous than what it was in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Back then, the falling birth rate and high mortality rate were compensated to some extent by migrants from post-Soviet republics. But now this mechanism is no longer working.

Three decades after the collapse of the USSR, it was migration growth that allowed to smooth out more than 70% of the natural population decline. Today Russia is no longer attractive for labor migrants.

Fertility at a historic low

In 2024, only 1.22 million children will be born in the Russian Federation - this is almost a repeat of the minimum figures of 1999.

Predictions suggest that in the coming years the birth rate will decline by another 3-5% annually. To stabilize the situation, the rate would have to rise from the current 1.4 to at least 1.7-1.8. But under the conditions of war, economic stagnation and weak social support, this is impossible.

War losses and aging of the population

The picture is worsened by the losses in the war against Ukraine and the outflow of citizens abroad. The aging factor is also added - the share of Russians aged 65+ is already 18% and growing. This creates a critical pressure on the pension system and medicine. There are fewer and fewer young labor resources, and this is becoming a serious challenge for the economy.

Ideology instead of support

Instead of developing a systemic family policy and health care development, the authorities in Moscow have chosen a course of ideological campaigns - limiting abortions and propaganda against Childfree. Such measures are unable to change the demographic situation and only increase social tension.

Without an influx of migrants by the end of the century, Russia's population may decline to 90 million people, and in the pessimistic scenario - even to 57 million.

"The country is ending the demographic cycle of the Putin era in much worse conditions than a quarter of a century ago, and the next generations of Russian leaders will inherit a protracted crisis with devastating consequences for the economy and social sphere," the intelligence agency said.

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