The Russian Economy Went To Zero
5- 4.09.2025, 9:59
- 11,596
The head of Sberbank of the Russian Federation announced the beginning of stagnation.
Russia's economy has actually stopped in the second quarter of 2025. A state of "technical stagnation" is observed.
This was stated by the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank Herman Gref, according to "Interfax".
"The second quarter can actually be regarded as technical stagnation. July and August show quite clear symptoms that we are approaching zero," Gref said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.
He noted that this was caused by a combination of geopolitical factors, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate and falling prices on commodity markets. As a result, business activity slowed down.
The Role of the Key Rate
Gref emphasized that the Central Bank's key rate remains the main factor limiting growth. Currently it is 14%, and this level is not enough to stimulate lending.
In his estimation, economic recovery is possible only if the rate drops below 12%. Otherwise, the risks of recession, i.e. the fall of the economy will increase.
Gref emphasized that it is not even the nominal rate that is important, but the real rate, which in Russia is now one of the highest in the world.
Loan Forecast
The head of Sberbank also said that the loan portfolio can move to growth only in the second half of 2025. For this to happen, it is necessary to ease monetary policy by at least 200 basis points.
He emphasized that the high cost of borrowing negatively affects both businesses and consumers. This limits investment and reduces demand.
Economic Outlook
Gref said that the Russian economy remains under pressure from many factors. Among them are sanctions, uncertainty in global markets and rising costs for businesses.
He warned that without adjusting financial policy, the economy risks being stuck in the stagnation zone for a long time.
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