By November, Trump Needs Success

What does this have to do with Putin?

The insolence of the Russians is growing. Since the evening of September 2, the Russian occupiers have launched a combined strike on Ukrainian territory using 502 UAVs and 24 air- and sea-based missiles. Recently, we have seen that the enemy has been adjusting its tactics - in parallel with nighttime air attacks, we have also seen daytime attacks. Here it is enough to recall that on September 2, the enemy launched more than 50 drones (mostly Shaheds) on the territory of Ukraine.

The massive shelling took place against the background of Putin's blasphemous statements. The Russian ruler, meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Beijing, remembered the dead North Korean military personnel in the war against Ukraine and said Russia "will never forget the DPRK's participation in the fight against modern neo-Nazism." The Russian dictator was clearly pleased with the trip: during his visit to Beijing, the so-called memorandum on the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline was signed. There is no talk of actual construction yet, because the memorandum is a framework document. But this "economic victory" has clearly had an impact on the Kremlin boss's level of arrogance.

In dry diplomatic terms, we can state that the "negotiating track" with the United States is slowing down, and Russia is getting additional arguments for further political bargaining.

The response to these processes came from Washington almost instantly. US President Donald Trump declared his disappointment with Russia's ruler and announced "certain actions." Another meaningful statement of the American president: they say that the leader of China Si Jinping together with the Kremlin master and the head of North Korea Kim Jong-un are "preparing a conspiracy" against America. How many times Trump has already changed his point of view is hard to recall.

If one simply watches the leaders of countries "exchanging signals," one can conclude that their position depends on which foot they got up on in the morning. The whole world is becoming like a big mental hospital.

It's not really that simple - the actions and words of politicians depend on the domestic and foreign policy context.

Donald Trump, for example, is in the context of the Senate election. How many Republicans will win the election? What will Trump's approval rating be? All of these, after all, have to do with Trump's power possibilities during the current cadence. The next question is what does Putin have to do with it?

Most Americans, indeed, don't care about foreign policy (not only Americans, but other nations as well), but they do care about whether the president keeps his campaign promises. And one of Trump's main promises is to end Russia's war against Ukraine. On the eve of the Senate elections, which will be held in the first days of November, Trump badly needs success.

The U.S. president believes that the ruler of Russia can give him this success. After all, Trump, in turn, has already given him something - he brought him out of international isolation, rolled out the red carpet in Alaska, slowed down sanctions, offered to legitimize Crimea... Now Trump has a "moral right" to expect gratitude or, let's say, a counter-step.

Putin, of course, understands the situation in which the American president finds himself, and is mocking him to the maximum: he gives a ghostly hope, then blasphemes, because he knows that Trump will be waiting for "gratitude". This game can continue for some time, and all this time Ukraine will bleed.

The Russians will behave as brazenly as possible, climbing into every crevice on the front and organizing massive aerial bombardment of civilians. We are aware that they are amassing large stockpiles of shahedin and modernizing their production. In this situation, we need to give up hopes that our problems will be solved by Trump, Comrade Xi, or someone else.

Our task is to scale up successful military experience, build up air defense capabilities (in particular, increase the use of interceptor drones) and beat the enemy on the ground and in the sky, on the line of contact and on their territory. This is a long but the only way to peace. Glory to Ukraine!

Yury Fedorenko, Facebook

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