ISW Called The Unexpected Target Of Russia's "Oreshnik" Strike On Ukraine A Surprise Target

Moscow deliberately chose the Lviv region.

Russia struck the Lviv region with a medium-range Oreshnik ballistic missile on January 9 to intimidate the West and deter foreign troop deployments to Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

Analysts believe Russia deliberately chose the Lviv region for the Oreshnik strike to show the West its "capabilities."

ISW calls the attack part of a "Russian nuclear rattle" that was intended to intimidate Western countries into not deploying troops to Ukraine.

The Institute recalled that "coalition of the willing" countries agreed at a meeting in Paris on Jan. 6 to send their militaries after a cease-fire as part of security guarantees for Ukraine.

At the same time, the Kremlin has repeatedly said that such Western security guarantees would be "unacceptable" to Russia and that foreign troops would be "legitimate targets" for Russian occupiers.

Analysts note that the use of the Oreshnik, which can carry a nuclear warhead, to strike the Lviv region is a threat to a coalition of the willing and an attempt to deter the deployment of foreign troops that would likely occur in western Ukraine.

ISW also recalled that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin first used the Oreshnik against Ukraine in November 2024 in response to Ukrainian strikes with ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles. At that time, the Kremlin was also trying to intimidate the West and deter military aid to Ukraine.

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