ISW: "General Frost" Started To Act Against The Russian Federation
- 15.01.2026, 10:31
- 6,996
But there is also her reason for slowing down the offensive of the occupiers.
The advance of Russian troops slowed down in late December 2025 and early January 2026. Experts believe this was due to worsening weather. But there is also a reason.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the Russian army has also stopped trying to meet arbitrary deadlines by the end of 2025.
The ISW analysis shows that the area of Ukrainian territory where Russian forces increased their presence or advance gradually decreased:
276.44 km² between Dec. 1 and Dec. 17;
89.05 km² between Dec. 17 and Dec. 31;
73.82 km² between Dec. 31 and Jan. 13.
The seven-day average of gains peaked on December 1-2 and then fell steadily through the end of the year.
Russian forces were able to take advantage of adverse weather conditions in the fall and early winter of 2025, which hampered Ukrainian drone operations, to make relatively faster advances.
The ISW has previously noted, however, that these favorable weather conditions have not been constant.
The ISW believes that Russian forces are likely having difficulty maintaining such a rapid pace of advance due to the cold weather, complicating Russia's ability to successfully implement its new offensive model, which relies heavily on infantry infiltration operations that require covering dozens of kilometers on foot with limited supplies.
Russian forces could also initially increase the tempo of offensive operations in December 2025 to meet Russian military commanders' requirements to achieve certain goals by the end of the year. But the goals were apparently never achieved, and the need for a high tempo of offensive operations at any cost is no longer necessary.
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