ISW: Russians Are Being Prepared For An Important Decision On The War

What kind of signal the Kremlin is preparing.

The Kremlin has once again brought into the public eye former Ukrainian MP and Putin's crony Viktor Medvedchuk, who is suspected of state treason and a number of serious crimes. His recent statements about Russia's war against Ukraine are aimed at preparing Russian society for Moscow's rejection of a peaceful settlement in the foreseeable future. This is the conclusion reached by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

On January 18, Russian propaganda resources actively replicated Medvedchuk's interview with the TASS agency, in which he made a number of theses about the war. In particular, he stated that "there will be no peace in Ukraine in 2026," and repeated key Kremlin narratives that "time is working for Russia" and Moscow intends to achieve its initial goals without negotiations with Kiev.

Medvedchuk also reproduced standard Kremlin claims about Russia's alleged war with the West, the "illegitimacy" of the Ukrainian government, and rejected the possibility of holding elections in Ukraine on any terms other than those imposed by the Russian Federation.

The ISW notes that such rhetoric has long been used by Vladimir Putin and his entourage to demonstrate commitment to the original goals of the invasion and the theory of "outlasting" Ukraine and its Western allies - both militarily and economically.

Analysts emphasize that the Kremlin is deliberately using Medvedchuk as a tool to voice more radical statements that Russian officials are not always willing to make directly. At the same time, his words are presented as the position of a person supposedly representing the Ukrainian side.

The ISW estimates that the main audience for these statements is the Russian population. The Kremlin is probably preparing public opinion for the continuation of the war and rejection of peace initiatives.

"The Kremlin is likely to use Medvedchuk's January 18 interview to justify Russia's rejection of peace efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine," the analysts said.

Medvedchuk's statements come against the backdrop of ongoing consultations between the United States, the EU and Ukraine to develop a peace plan, as well as recent talks between Kiev and Washington in Miami on January 16. ISW is convinced that Moscow is likely to reject any peace proposal that does not fully meet its maximalist demands.

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