The Kremlin Has Begun To Prepare For Kadyrov's Death

Several options are being considered to maintain control over Chechnya.

The Kremlin is "working" to address the power vacuum in Chechnya due to the possible death of the republic's head Ramzan Kadyrov, "Important Stories" writes, citing a source close to the Kremlin and United Russia. He characterizes the situation in the region as extremely grave amid new reports of Kadyrov's fatal illness and a recent accident that injured his son, 18-year-old Adam Kadyrov, who is being tipped to succeed him.

"Everything that is happening in Chechnya now is being carefully concealed, and there are very complicated processes going on there. The people have been heavily manipulated, none of them are talking about what is happening. The locals have been told that 'if there are any leaks, we will simply destroy everyone, the whole family down to the seventh knee,'" the interlocutor said.

One of the Kremlin's options is to appoint a "successor to the throne." In case the Chechen head dies before Adam Kadyrov reaches his 30th birthday, when he is legally able to lead the republic, he would ensure stability in Chechnya, acting in the interests of the family. "Adam's authority is his surname, his origin. A subject has emerged within the Russian Federation in which there is a personalist dictatorship with a dynastic way of transferring power," notes political scientist Dmitry Dubrovsky, a lecturer at Charles University in Prague.

Another possible option is the appointment of a person loyal to Kadyrov as head of Chechnya. According to Vazhnye Istorii's sources, an ex-FSB officer and a representative of the Chechen diaspora, someone from the largest Benoi teip, whose representatives are already represented in all of Chechnya's power structures, would be suitable for the job.

One of them is Adam Delimkhanov, a State Duma deputy from Chechnya and a longtime associate of Kadyrov, who controls the Chechen diaspora. Kadyrov has instructed him to "train" Adam and provide him with his connections, including in the criminal milieu, according to Important Stories. The second candidate is Chechen government head Magomed Daudov, another of Kadyrov's closest associates, who is in charge of repression in the region. According to Vazhnye Istorii's sources, a conflict is now brewing between these two actors over claims to power.

Dubrovsky believes that in the event of Kadyrov's death and a possible power struggle in Chechnya, there will be no mass demonstrations or destabilization. "Moscow, which is up to its ears in the war in Ukraine, only lacks an unstable Chechnya. Anyone who guarantees the status quo will suit Moscow," he emphasizes.

Politologist Abbas Galliamov admits that Kadyrov's death could lead to a clan struggle for power and mass demonstrations. "There are many dissatisfied people in Chechnya, and there are many of them in the Chechen elites. And if they feel that the system has weakened sufficiently and that it is possible to raise their heads and start fighting it, they will definitely do so," says Galliamov. As for the choice of a successor, Moscow will first of all focus on a person who will minimize risks, the expert believes: "The priority is not Chechnya. The priority is not to waste resources. Everything that is available is concentrated on the Ukrainian issue."

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