A Shock For Lukashenko

And everything was starting so well when suddenly the "Maduro mishap" occurred.

The American operation in Venezuela was probably a shock for Lukashenko and broke his political positioning. Two approaches, which are in fundamental contradiction, collided.

On the one hand, Lukashenko is categorically against violent change of power, especially dictatorial power. For him, any power is a sacred thing, and an attempt on it is sacrilege. He has defended all dictators, offered political asylum to many (Slobodan Milosevic, Saddam Hussein, Viktor Yanukovych). Hosted former Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. He has also declared his readiness to receive Maduro, calling him a "heroic man" in a recent interview. Lukashenko always tries the fate of dictators on himself.

But there is another side. In 2025, Lukashenko fumbled for a strategy that was supposed to help solve international problems, primarily in relations with the West. He bet on Trump, presenting himself as a consistent Trumpist. In Lukashenko's vision, the U.S. president acted as a kind of a wall-breaking machine, which was supposed to destroy the Western wall. It seemed that common ground had been found, based on pragmatism rather than on discussions about human rights.

And everything started so well, when suddenly the "Maduro mishap" occurred. He shot down the whole program. And the regime floundered. Officially, there was a protest against the U.S. actions, support for Venezuela. But somehow strange. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry condemned the "armed aggression" against Venezuela, without specifying from whom it came. This was followed by a telephone conversation between Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov and his Venezuelan counterpart. There was also a corresponding statement of the Chairman of the Council of the Republic of the National Assembly of Belarus Natalia Kochanova.

There was also a short, one-sentence rejoinder of Lukashenko, which was reported by BelTA and the Telegram channel "Pool One": "The President of Belarus CATEGORICALLY condemns the act of American aggression against Venezuela." However, the ruler himself was not shown on the screen on this occasion. Moreover, Lukashenko's official web-site doesn't have this line either. That is, the reaction seems to be there, but it is somehow shy and hidden.

Lukashenko has recently joyfully announced his imminent meeting with Trump. However, now we can assume that if he is waiting for such a meeting, it is with great caution and suspicion. Because the image of the detained leader of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro being led in handcuffs to an American detention center stands in front of his eyes. Whatever one says, the fate of dictators is not sweet.

Valeriy Karbalevich, "Radio Svaboda"

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