The Kremlin Trusts Kadyrov Less And Less

The ruler of Chechnya is starting to get out of Putin's control.

Russian media recently claimed that the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov was hospitalized on the eve of a meeting of the Russian State Council, which was chaired by dictator and war criminal Vladimir Putin. The information citing sources in Kadyrov's entourage should still be taken with caution and await official confirmation. It cannot be ruled out that such insinuations are part of an information and psychological operation that is being deliberately launched by his team. The purpose of such insinuations is to play ahead of the game and reduce the risks of negative scenarios, including Kadyrov's removal from office or even his physical liquidation.

It is telling that in the course of 2025 alone there have been at least three reports of his hospitalization, his critical state of health or the preparation of a successor. In this context, it is likely that the current wave of information is an attempt to draw attention to the situation and create safeguards against possible drastic actions against him. Until confirmed data emerge, all this remains elements of information and psychological operations rather than established facts.

At the same time, the political context cannot be ignored. Kadyrov's recent statements, in particular with regard to the Russian generals, have caused considerable resonance in the Russian media and a sharp negative reaction among Russian nationalists - the very audience on which Putin's dictatorship relies to a large extent. It is therefore most likely that Kadyrov is aware of the possible options for further action on the part of both the security services, particularly the army, and the Russian dictator himself.

And what is more, his activity is increasingly causing outright irritation among Russian society. In particular, we are talking about the processes of de facto Islamization of the Russian Federation, as well as the campaign around which object should be depicted on Russian banknotes, where Kadyrov's team actively promoted its own version. Such initiatives cannot but provoke a negative reaction both among the general public and, above all, among the Russian security forces.

The more so because Kadyrov's position has recently been increasingly demonstrating elements of political independence. He is trying to position himself not just as a regional leader, but as an almost autonomous political figure. Ramzan Kadyrov's recent visits to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are clear evidence of his desire to gain international support, primarily from the leading Muslim countries. Such actions already go beyond the usual rhetoric and point to a direct threat to the Putin regime.

In the same context, the openly demonstrative story with Adam Kadyrov - the wave of awards and his public positioning as a possible successor - should also be considered. At the same time, one cannot ignore the fact that Kadyrov, in a certain sense, continues to please Putin. It is thanks to the security forces under his control that the Kremlin manages to maintain control over the extremely problematic region of the North Caucasus - not only Chechnya, but also the neighboring republics. In this sense, Kadyrov remains a key instrument of stabilization, which partially levels out scenarios of his immediate physical removal.

Thus, the question of Kadyrov's future fate has not yet been definitively resolved. It is in this contradiction that the Kremlin and, above all, the Russian security services may see a potential threat to the stability of the regime.

In this context, the discussion of Kadyrov's possible deterioration and reports about his physical condition, even if they are indeed initiated by his own team, do not change the main issue. Even in the event of his replacement, the key question is to what extent the Russian security services will be able to continue to effectively control Chechnya and its neighboring republics.

It is likely that in the event of a replacement scenario, the Kremlin will bet on a completely controllable figure - for example, someone from Kadyrov's inner circle, in particular Adam Delimkhanov or another representative with close ties to the Russian security services. Such a person would be politically unstable and devoid of his own ambitions, unlike Kadyrov himself. That is why we should not rule out such a development.

Dmitry Snegirev, "Glavred".

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