Russia Is Preparing A War Against The Baltic States Or One Of Its Neighbors
8- 10.02.2026, 10:25
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The report of the Munich Security Conference has been published.
Russia is probably preparing for new military conflicts in Europe - in particular against the Baltic States or one of its neighbors. This is stated in a new report of the Munich Security Conference, the authors of which warn about the end of the era of the American "security umbrella" for Europe.
The document notes that the second administration of US President Donald Trump made it clear: responsibility for European security should be borne by the European members of NATO themselves. In particular, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hagseth said during a Contact Group meeting on February 12, 2025, that ensuring Europe's security should be a priority for the Europeans.
Europe is left alone to face the threats
According to Washington's new doctrine, European countries should take a "preeminent share" of both lethal and non-lethal assistance to Ukraine. The report notes that since January 2025, U.S. military support has sharply declined, and the security issue is increasingly used by Washington as an instrument of economic pressure - in conjunction with trade concessions from the EU.
With this background, analysts estimate that the Kremlin is increasing its aggressive policy. Russia has completely shifted its economy to a war footing, spending about 40% of the federal budget on defense, and has not abandoned its maximalist goals in the war against Ukraine.
Possible scenarios for a new war
The authors of the report, citing intelligence data, point to several potential scenarios:
regional war in the Baltics could begin within two years of a possible cease-fire in Ukraine;
local conflict against one of Russia's neighbors - in as little as six months.
It is also noted that Moscow has already intensified its hybrid campaign in Europe. We are talking, in particular, about sabotage of energy infrastructure and violation of the airspace of Poland and Estonia in September 2025.
Europe is alarmed by the US-backed peace plan
A separate concern in European capitals was caused by the so-called 28-point peace plan, which appeared in November 2025 with the support of the United States. The document, according to the authors of the report, largely ignores the interests of Europe, provides for territorial concessions from Ukraine, limiting the number of AFU and excluding Kiev's membership in NATO.
The report notes that the US is increasingly acting as an "arbitrator" rather than an ally.
Europe is increasing spending but not creating a joint defense
Despite the fact that European countries as a whole have increased defense budgets by 41%, the authors of the report consider these steps insufficient. Instead of forming a unified defense system within the EU, states have gone down the path of "industrial nationalism," continuing to purchase U.S. weapons systems - particularly the F-35 and Patriot - in order to maintain Washington's loyalty.
Finishing the report, analysts warn that further hesitation and lack of strategic decisions could leave Europe in a "gray zone" between different spheres of influence, gradually undermining its ability to determine its own future.
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