ISW: Russia Has Turned To Manipulation

What's behind Lavrov's words.

On the eve of a new round of talks in Abu Dhabi to be held on February 4-5, the Kremlin is manipulating issues in bilateral relations with the United States that are unrelated to the war in Ukraine to force the Donald Trump administration to give in to Russia's demands regarding Ukraine.

This is according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War on February 1.

The ISW recalls that according to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, delegations from the United States, Ukraine, and Russia will hold the next round of trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi on February 4 and 5, not February 1 as previously planned.

At the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov used an interview with Kremlin propagandist Pavel Zarubin published on February 1 to try to curry favor with the Donald Trump administration ahead of the upcoming meetings in the UAE and convince the United States to negotiate only with Russia and not with Ukraine and Europe. In that interview, Lavrov referred to Russia and the United States several times as "major countries" and said the two powers should "realize mutually beneficial economic, trade, and investment projects" when their "national interests" coincide. When these interests do not coincide, Lavrov added, it would be "not a mistake, but a crime to allow this mismatch to degenerate into a confrontation, especially a hot confrontation." In addition, the Russian minister claimed that Europe is allegedly trying to "drive a wedge" between Russia and the United States.

With these statements by the Russian Foreign Minister in mind, ISW analysts note that they are part of the Kremlin's negotiating tactics. Since Trump's assumption of the U.S. presidency in January 2025, Moscow has been trying to present Russia as a global power that can be compared to the United States, as well as the heir to the Soviet "superpower status," reminds the Institute for the Study of War. Therefore, Lavrov's new statements on February 1 are intended to "use the prospects of economic agreements or strategic arms talks to induce Trump to give in to Russia's demands on Ukraine, including the Kremlin's demands that the United States not involve Europe in the peace process," ISW experts summarize.

The Institute for the Study of War also drew attention to a January 31 Bloomberg publication, which, citing knowledgeable sources, reported that Russia sees little chance of a breakthrough in the ongoing peace talks. ISW believes that at the same time, Russia is still trying to present itself on the international stage [particularly to the U.S. - ed. note] as an interested negotiator in order to gain control over the entire Donetsk region through diplomatic means.

Analysts suggest that Russian officials will likely continue to try to present their demand for Ukraine's relinquishment of the entire Donetsk region as a supposedly "moderate" position and a meaningful "concession" on Moscow's part. In reality, the Russian Federation is seeking concessions that could ultimately cause strategic damage to Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that it would be a strategic mistake to hand over the unoccupied territories of Donetsk Oblast to the Russians, since the Russian Federation is unlikely to seize this land militarily quickly or easily. However, if it did, it would be in a much better position to resume attacks against Ukraine in the future.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com