Former economy minister: Belarus to face devaluation regardless of whether the authorities want this or not

Independent experts suppose another tranche of Russian $500-million credit won’t help the Belarusian economy.

The National bank of Belarus denies any possibility of ne devaluation of the Belarusian ruble similar to that on January 1, 2009. The ruble was devalues by 20% in relation to the dollar, ad later lost 10 more percentage points, Radio Svaboda reports.

First Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Bank Pavel Kalaur said: there are no economic grounds for further devaluation of the Belarusian ruble above the level provided by the main directions of the monetary policy in 2009. According to the banker, a currency basket peg system works in Belarus, deviation from the central rate of the basket, consisting of the dollar, euro, and Russian ruble, can’t exceed 5%. The current deviation is one per cent to the maximal restriction, Kalaur added.

Former economy minister of Belarus Heorhy Badzei said in turn a new devaluation of the Belarusian national currency was inevitable. According to the economist, judging by $1.5-billion negative trade balance, the Belarusian economy will face devaluation regardless of whether the authorities want this or not. However, it’s difficult to forecast how soon it will happen.

Belarusian economist Valer Kruhavy, living now in Poland, doesn’t trust such optimistic statements:

“Due to its specifics of the economy and political power Belarus met the crisis in its third stage. But several stages are expected! It’s natural that those who have met the crisis later, will tackle it later, too.”

However, Minsk counts on the second tranche of $500-million Russian loan. According to Pavel Kalaur, Belarus doesn’t lose a hope for getting the loan in late May. Besides, Belarus hasn’t given up an idea to gain another credit from Russia in an amount of 100 billion Russian rubles.

Valer Kruhavy notes that these preventive injections will hardly be effective to cure the chronic diseases of the Belarusian economy.

The National Bank of Belarus assures the Belarusians: the situation in the monetary and credit sector remains stable, there are no grounds for anxiety. The same assurances could be heard some days before the previous devaluation that declined income of most Belarusians by 20–40 per cent.