Lukashenka will collapse overnight

After Lukashenka fell out with the leadership of Russia, it is clear that he won’t hold down his position.

As a Russian website “Svobodnaya pressa” writes, on December 19 another presidential election will take place in Belarus. Lukashenka’s opponents, who is going to be elected for his forth term, are to be 11 candidates. That is the number of contenders for the highest position in our country, who had been able to collect 100,000 signatures of voters. Lukashenka has collected more than 1.2 million signatures.

Lukashenka’ serious contenders in the next election could be only two persons: the leader of “European Belarus” Andrei Sannikov, an economist and President of the Scientific Research Mises Center Yaraslau Ramanchuk, and the poet and leader of “Tell the Truth” campaign Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu. According to preliminary opinion polls in the streets and on the web, Sannikov is the leader among the oppositional candidates.

SP – Please tell us why have you decided to with Lukashenka only now, in this election? Why haven’t you run in the election in 2006?

- I have not gone to the polls in 2001 as well. After I resigned, I worked for uniting the opposition together with Henadz Karpenka, who was an undoubted leader of the democratic forces. After his death I found it to be my duty to continue his cause. Charter-97, all our team, has done a lot for consolidation of opposition and organizing mass protest rallies in 1999-2006. I believe that in 2001 and in 2006 the opposition could have won. We supported single candidates, who after the election withdrew into the shadows for some reason, and started to work for the authorities. Our chances were influenced by absence of the leaders who died: Henadz Karpenka, Yuri Zakharanka and Viktar Hanchar.

The decision to participate this year was adopted by me because today we are ready to win. The people hate the dictatorship, they are fed up with it. I am supported by many leaders of the democratic movement, and by my team, which I think is the best in the country. In this situation we are ready to shoulder responsibility for change of power and further development of Belarus.

SP – You are the leader in opinion polls on the web obviously. Why it is so? Maybe the reason is the popularity of Charter’97 website?

- Today the Internet community is the most modern, educated and active part of the society. These are the people who create the mainstream and determine the climate in the country in the run-up to the presidential election. I am thankful to them for their support.

SP – Who is the strongest candidate among the present presidential candidates, except for Lukashenka? Why?

- I find Anatol Lyabedzka, Syarhei Kalyakin, Alyaksandr Kazulin, Alyaksandr Milinkevich, Paval Sevyarynets to be strong Belarusian politicians. These people are familiar to the nation, they have come through arrests, prisons, hunger strikes, beating. For different reasons they have decided not to take part in the presidential campaign in the leading role. I am sure that they will make a statement in the transition period and will work in the framework of the common democratic scenario.

SP – Nyaklyaeu and Ramanchuk are often charged with being too loyal to the Kremlin. They are pro-Kremlin candidates, as they say. And what would you say about yourself? What external forces are supporting you?

- I have many friends in Europe, in Russia and in the US. Our strategy of integration to the European Union alongside with development of strategic partnership with Russia and Ukraine finds their understanding and support. I think that the EU countries and Russia will eventually come to a new strategy of relations which meets the challenges of the 21st century. I am sure that European Belarus and Ukraine would reinforce Russia’s positions in Europe and enliven the processes of creation of a new modern architecture of security in Europe.

SP – are you holding meetings at a high level in Moscow? Have any officials from the Kremlin communicated with you? If so, what were the results?

- There were no such meetings. But as the head of Russia’s presidential administration Sergei Naryshkin stated recently, Moscow is closely following the progress of the election campaign in Belarus. For the first time in many years Russia stated that it would not support Lukashenka absolutely. I do not exclude meetings with the highest leadership of Russia.

SP – It was written in the press a lot that the Belarusian opposition seriously counts on support of the Kremlin in this election. To your mind, what position would be taken by Moscow be in December?

- For many years we have been fighting for Belarus’ liberation from the dictatorship. Only after the change of power in Belarus it would be possible to speak about normal relations between our countries. This election has great importance both for the Belarusian nation and the Russians. We welcome the new policy of Russia towards Belarus.

SP – What is your realistic rating? What is the rating of Lukashenka, your other opponents? It is understandable that you do not have exact information, but we would like to know your suppositions.

- There is no independent sociology in a totalitarian society. Expecting Western loans, Lukashenka has to play in “democracy”. Now there is a possibility to see the real ratings of candidates in the pickets for collection of signatures. There were no people at Lukashenka’s pickets, people are willingly giving signatures for alternative candidates. During my frequent trips around the country I see that everywhere people are actively signing for my nomination as a presidential candidate.

SP – Do you think that the opposition really has a chance to win?

- The time of Lukashenka is over. I am sure we will win.

SP – Is it possible, at least theoretically, that the outcome of the election would be decided during the vote count? Or will everything be decided in the streets?

- There was no vote count in Belarus for many years. At the same time, history teaches us that dictatorships collapse overnight. The same will happen in Belarus.

SP – What are the sentiments in the Belarusian society and are they different from the sentiments 5 years ago? Are people ready to go to the streets and defend their position?

- People want a change of power. In the pickets people not simply giving signatures for me, but they simply demand to take to the Square. No one believes the vote count.

SP – What is happening with the Belarusian economy? Will it survive in case of continuing pressure of the Kremlin?

- Every day of Lukashenka in power is an economic nightmare for Belarus. He has taken loans from neighbours, has fallen out with everybody, as he is not able to pay debts. I want him step down to as soon as possible, so that we could normalize relations with all countries.