Russian experts: Belarus on verge of collapse
53- 29.03.2010, 10:25
Minsk in a stalemate: duties for Russian oil can cause very great losses.
Such an opinion was expressed on March 26 by a Russian political analyst Anna Kurennova to a IA Regnum reporter.
We remind that on March 25 Belarus sued Russia in the Economic Court of the CIS. According to official Minsk, customs duties on the oil products and crude oil Russia supplies to Belarus are illegal, as the both sides are members of the Custons Union.
"That happens not because Belarus is bad-tempered, but because it has no other choice. The budget of the country was greatly dependant on the of oil re-export. Generally speaking, Minsk has no way back. This suit is a preparational firing. I hope that after that the both sides would do some well-thought-out steps," Kurennova said.
To her mind, Russia could have met Belarus halfway in this matter, lifting duties at least for some time. "However the Russian leadership seems to have no intention to do that. Otherwise its entire policy pursued for the last year and a half would be meaningless," the expert believes.
"LIfting duties should be formalised as a provisional measure, which can be reversed any moment. But what if Belarus would finally act according to the existing agreements? Minsk is in a stalemate: if it countinues to pay duties, it can incur very serious losses. A real collapse will happen there. If Belarus won't allow Russian capital to its market now and won't conquer the oil addiction, the collapse will follow in any case. And if Russia would really lift duties for some period now, Belarus' not following all the agreements that had been concluded by it would very soon result in imposing duties again," Kurennova said.
As said by her, one billion loan promised by China to Minsk could be spent for oil purchases as well. This step could be dictated by lack of own resources.
We also remind that during the visit to Belarus of Vice President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping which took place on March 24, a number of economic agreements were signed between Minsk and Beijing. In particular, China offered Belarus a $1 billion loan for implementation of joint projects and about $9 million as a grant aid.
