Raman Yakauleuski: “It’s favourable for authorities to hold presidential elections as soon as possible”

The economic situation in the country spurs the authorities to set the data for the presidential elections for the nearest time.

“It is favourable for Lukashenka to hold the elections as soon as possible. There are some problems with Russia, both we know and don’t know. These are, first of all, gas and fall of living standards caused not only by energy prices but also by prices on other goods,” political observer Raman Yakauleuski noted in an interview to Euroradio.

Politologist Alyaksandr Klaskouski agrees that holding the elections this autumn would be profitable for the authorities:

“The Moscow factor has become threatening as never before. After that visit to Moscow, which seems to have failed, a reason for concern is growing. There appear stronger arguments to carry out early elections.”

Economist Leaned Zaika is sure that economy will influence setting the date for the elections.

“The current situation is very difficult. Unpleasant economic problems have appeared: lack of oil to secure high profits for the officials, a decline in relations with Russia and dark prospects for energy supplies, in particular, gas supplies. So, the elections should be carried out as soon as possible, the authorities are interested in this,” Zaika thinks.

Moreover, the president promised $500 salaries by the end of 2010. If the elections are held in February, he may be asked about this. As the economist supposes, this level of salaries cannot be achieved even if the Belarusian authorities continue to use Gazprom for some months on the current terms.

“This is a zugzwang situation, as chess players say. Any of possible moves leads to defeat. On one hand economic problems will catastrophically grow by the beginning of winter, though it will be uncomfortable for people to go to protest demonstrations in cold weather. On the other hand, if the elections are held in autumn, it will be impossible to control the army of school graduates and students who always take part in protest campaigns against the authorities. It is easier to organize demonstrations in warm weather,” Zmitser Bandarenka, a coordinator of the civil campaign European Belarus, told in an interview to charter97.org.