“They plan to pass severe sentences, and then start bargaining with West”

On Tuesday, April 26, a trial over Zmitser Bandarenka, a person involved in the “mass riots” case, starts. The trial over the presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov will be next.

How severe the verdicts will be, considering the present political and economic reality? Experts are convinced that it’s too early to let one’s guard down.

According to a political analyst Alyaksandr Klaskouski, for today there two factors which could influence the outcome of the trial, and remarkably, they are conflicting, “Salidarnasts” writes.

– On the one hand, we have a financial crisis, aggravation of economic problems, an impression that Russia has driven Belarus to the wall, and a bridge to the West is needed to be built again, in order to withstand this pressure, or even simply to ask money from the West – all these reasons make the authorities to lighten the future punishment for the persons involved in this case, – he notes. – We have seen a number of steps. Firstly, the charges have been changed. Bandarenka has been charged under an article which requires a lighter punishment, and now he faces up to 3 years, and not 15 years of imprisonment. Besides, the authorities have changed the level of restriction. These are the moves which can demonstrate that the authorities are trying to carry out bargaining with the West, which is behind-the-scene bargaining so far.

However, there is a different factor, which makes the authorities to carry the undertaking through, and to sentence the persons involved in the case to tangible, rather long terms. The recent rhetoric of the regime proves that.

– All this aggressive rhetoric, which we heard after the metro blast, when political opponents of the regime got it in the neck, suggests that, – Alyaksandr Klasksouki stresses. – One may think, what is the connection between the foreign currency shortage, problems with sugar supplies, vegetable oil, the terrorist attack and the opposition? However, in fact, the regime performed propaganda dances on the bones, when they tried to fasten being the fifth column [on the opposition]. This factor can only worsen the background of these obviously politically motivated legal proceedings. After the regime was working so hard to smear the opposition black, and to make the source of all woes out of it, it would be simply unthinkable to backtrack and declare someone not guilty. Even more or less mild sentence would be illogical from the point of view of the authorities, as the keynote idea at the moment is reprisals against political opponents, who have responsibility for everything allegedly.

It is hard to say yet, which of these two factors would outweigh. However, political analysts still think that the second one is more probable. Choosing between making a courtesy to the West in order to solve economic problems [and keeping face], the authorities would still prefer to keep face (as they understand it).

– But does the West it giving anything to us, for the regime to cave in to it? – Pyotr Martsau, the editor-in-chief of BDG asks. – Everyone is sitting and waiting for a loan from Russia. That is why we should not hope for any kind of indulgence. It is an internal matter for Lukashenka, it’s the issue of his authority and authority of special services. Otherwise that would mean Lukashenka had been lying, and the special services have been lying. Why have these people spent 4 months in prison, if they are innocent and they should have been set free? So in order not to lose its standing in the eyes of the society completely, the authorities will drive the nail home. Both Sannikov and Bandarenka will be sentenced to tangible and rather long terms.

Alyaksandr Klasksouski reminds that unlike Bandarenka, the charges for Sannikov has not been re-determined.

– As before, he is called the organiser. Sannikov looked as one of the strongest contenders; his campaign was strong and harsh, he was one of the main central figures on the Square on December 19, so from the point of view of the authorities he deserves a more cruel punishment anyway, – the political analyst notes. – However, it is clear that getting to the root of things, these trials and “mass riots” charges do not hold water. But not an issue of the law, but an issue of political expediency for the authorities comes to the foreground is in this case. One can predict that the verdicts are more likely to be tough, not lenient. Everyone will be punished in accordance with the article of the criminal code. But personally I wish the opposite certainly. But it would be logical for the regime to save face, as they understand it, and deliver harsh sentences, and after that demonstrate mercifulness and generosity.

Such a scenario is confirmed by the recent interview of Alyaksandr Lukashenka to Washington Post. To the question of a journalist whether he is going to grant pardon to the candidates, the president made it unambiguously clear that this issue not to be decided before the trial. “I will tell you when time comes. At the moment there is no such necessity. Only a court has a right to decide what to do with these people. And why are you trying to make me intervene?” he emphasized.

And after the trial, when verdicts would be delivered, and terms would be rather long, a new game would be started, experts believe. It will be a game for rapprochement with the West.

– From the point of view of the common sense, it wouldn't be a bad thing to thaw the relations with the West, -- Pyotr Martsau said. – But the authorities have their peculiar logics. Their plan is apparently to pass severe sentences, and then start bargaining with West.

– I think that by harsh sentences the regime can show its uncompromising stand, in their own interpretation. They will show off and make it clear that no one would go unpunished in this country, so no one would fancy taking to the streets to protest. And the rest would happen as a backstage game with the West. We remember what was happening with Kazulin, who was released in 2008, and it thawed the relations between Belarus and Europe. I think this paradigm is kept in store by the regime now as well, – Alyaksandr Klaskouski notes.