However, Belarusian people will still have the last word.
The coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Dzmitser Bandarenka comments on the last conflicts between the Russian and Belarusian authorities in an interview with charter97.org.
– Could you, please, comment on Lukashenka's refusal to go to the summit of the CSTO and EAEC, which opened yesterday in St. Petersburg.
– It's obvious, that the relations between the two dictators, between the two "brotherhood" regimes are as bad as ever. The hypothesis that Russia has decided to remove Lukashenka from power looks quite real. The Belarusian dictator has become aware of it: intelligence services have brought him some documents confirming the realization of this plan by the Russian authorities and the existence of the conspirators in Belarus.
So far, the analytics have been ignoring for some reason that Belarus received only 18 million tons of oil in 2016 instead of the promised 24 or 25 million tons. All statements that the gross domestic product of Belarus has been growing over the recent months, have no grounds. With such losses of the main raw material, which brings the greatest export earnings, real GDP decline is not less than 5% this year. And Russia has already announced that it will supply only 18 million tons of oil to Belarus in the next year as well. This actually knocks the crutches out from under the Belarusian regime and Lukashenka's personal power.
– Will there be a state of emergency declared? What can we expect in the nearest future?
– Yes, it's quite possible. It is evident that the dictator takes chaotic, inappropriate actions, and the probability of a state of emergency, in my opinion, is very high.
It should be noted, that Putin, for sure, totally controls the Belarusian regime, but there is also a personal factor involved. Strangely, Lukashenka is the second most popular politician in the Russian domestic market. According to the latest opinion polls, his rating of credibility among Russians is 65%.
This can not but irritate Putin, because in a situation where there are economical problems in Russia itself, there may appear factions among the security forces and politicians, who could try to use the card of Lukashenka in Russia. that is why, I think that the fate of Lukashenka as a ruler is sealed.
– How will the situation in Belarus develop in this case?
– There are no grounds to think that the life of Belarusians will change for the better under the current regime. However, the situation in the world and the region is developing dynamically. There is a growing dissatisfaction with the authorities among the Belarusians, and therefore my forecast is that despite any actions of Lukashenka, the situation will develop according to a scenario, which the government cannot control.
– How Putin can dismiss Lukashenka? How can it be practically realized?
– Russia has a large arsenal of possibilities for the removal of the Belarusian dictator from the power. Such variants have been already tried both in Russia (for example, in Tatarstan, Moscow, Bashkortostan), and in Transnistria, where there was the Smirnov regime for a long time. However, the difference between all these regions and Belarus and good luck of Belarus is that we have a huge number of people who are patriots of Belarus and the number of these people has increased. Besides, there are serious pro-European moods in the society. Belarus borders with the countries of the European Union, NATO, as well as with Ukraine, which seeks to enter into these structures. All this gives us hope and the real possibility to make positive changes. We know that Russian and former Soviet rules have often wanted one thing, but received a completely different thing. But to achieve this, the responsible Belarusian politicians should summon their will and the Belarusians should be ready for the serious months-long fight for their rights, for freedom and independence of the country.