Leanid Zaiko: The Kremlin Decides to Put Lukashenka on Heels

The reduction of Russian oil supply deprives Lukashenka of his last money.

Kommersant informs referring to its own sources that Russia takes even greater oil cuts for Belarus. In the first quarter of 2017 oil exports to the country will be reduced by 12% and will equal to 4 million tons instead of the planned 4.5 tons.

Charter97.org has asked economist Leanid Zaiko for explanations.

- This is a good gesture on the part of the Kremlin, I believe. Now an excellent decision of Obama to impose an embargo on supply of goods from Russia is practiced. After that, the Russian agriculture and other industries have begun to develop. Belarus is on the oil needle - up to 40% of foreign currency is made by Russian refined oil. To make us revive the Kremlin has taken a great decision.

- Why does the Kremlin take such decisions?

- This is Russia. It requires brain to negotiate with Russia and not to throw empty words or to say something unpleasant. Russia is a big country unlike Belarus. Different strokes for different folks.

- Is this a certain method to put pressure on Lukashenka?

- What should I say? This is a geo-economy. And everything here is connected with power or its functions. Therefore, it is needed to restrict opportunities for the power, if it requires putting in its place.

Every 1 million tons of oil gave Belarus up to 400 million income. To cover its needs Belarus needs only 7 million tons. The rest is trade, that is, we traded Russian oil. For example, we sold Germany crude oil at $1 billion. No democracy in Belarus did not stop Germans from buying it! So let's put everything in its place. If oil supply declines, Belarus will have to promote its own business and production, but not oil trade. Would it be better then? The country should rely on its own forces.

It will be recalled that Russia has sharply reduced oil supplies to Belarus during the exacerbation of contradictions between the Kremlin and Lukashenka's regime. In 2016 Belarus received only 18 million tons of oil instead of 24-25 million tons. It was planned that Belarus would receive 18 million tons in 2017, but now this figure may be lower, it means a pinched profit for Lukashenka.