Why Ukraine Got Out Of "Bermuda Triangle", And Belarus Not

The figures to be envied by the Belarusians.

According to the officials of the neighboring country, in January-August of this year, the export of goods from Ukraine increased by 17.4% and amounted to 27.5 billion dollars compared to the same period in 2016. Perhaps, for the first time in three years after the Maidan, the Ukrainian economy demonstrates such a significant growth in foreign trade. Previously, local enterprises experienced a lengthy period of decline.

Then again, as well as the Belarusian ones.

Despite the absence of military conflicts and internal calamities in Belarus, things have not been going too well for the last three years. From 2014 to 2016, the volume of the country’s foreign trade was declining at full speed. The reason was that the Russian economy, dependent on oil prices and being under the sanctions, deflated rapidly, and at the same time, sales of Belarusian tractors, trucks and even the notorious dairy products fell.

In 2017, our country, as well as Ukraine, began to get out of the economic crisis – since the beginning of the year, Belarusian enterprises have also increased exports of goods significantly – by 18.2% or 4.2 billion dollars.

It turns out that both countries have overcome difficulties and show positive dynamics? Yes, but there is a nuance.

During this time, the Ukrainian economy has managed to reduce drastically its dependence on the Russian market. Now the largest partner in foreign trade is the European Union, its share in exports is about 40% now. Russia comes next – 9.5%, then Turkey – 5.8%, India – 5.3%, Egypt – 4.8% and China – 4.6%.

In the context of Belarus, the situation looks quite different: Russia still accounts for 45.2% of the total exports of Belarusian goods (at that, in January-August 2016, it was 44.8%).

And this means that with the next world fall in oil prices or new sanctions against the neighboring country (and something suggests that they will not be slow in coming), Belarus will again be lured into the whole mess of the economic crisis. Just like the ships getting into the notorious Bermuda Triangle.

Pavel Ross, gazetaby.com