Leanid Zaika: Don't Give Money to the "Patient!"

Lukashenka's economy goes on its knees and asks for money.

On the eve of the previous weekend Fitch Ratings decided to "sweeten" the weekend and changed the outlook for Belarus' country rating from "stable" to "positive". Official media took advantage of it and stated about the "improvement of the situation".

However, none of ordinary citizens faced "positive changes". What is going on in the economy of Belarus in real life, and where did this juggling figures designed to convince that "the patient is likely alive" come from?

These questions of Charter97.org were addressed to the head of the Strategy analytical center, economist Leanid Zaika.

- What is the ground for Fitch's forecast and are their conclusions connected with the Belarusian reality?

- Official statistics is the source for any international organization with headquarters in Washington and drinking coffee with juice or even whiskey and soda.

All that can be scrupulously "calculated" by the state statistical services of the country later becomes "a source of inspiration" for them. There is no other system. Therefore, there is nothing strange that, according to their indicators, Belarus "has moved forward".

- At the same time, just recently another authoritative organization, the International Monetary Fund, has stopped negotiations with Lukashenka about the possibility of granting a loan. Does it have other sources of information? Will the IMF position on Belarus change?

- Of course, general macroeconomic parameters are always taken into account. It's like an appointment with a doctor: the body's temperature, blood sugar test, RBC count are used to examine a patient's health.

But I am very grateful to them for ending the negotiations on the loan. And I hope that the IMF will not issue this loan at all. The Belarusian authorities make themselves and the economy decay with these loans.

These loans together amount to $40 billion. The national debt grew by 14.6%. Therefore, my personal thanks and thanks of our economists to all international organizations. Do not give more money. It's enough! It's time to learn how to live for our own means.

- It seems that the authorities do not think so and took a really strange maneuver in response to the growth of the national debt, more reminiscent of a primitive "magic". They increased the upper bar of the allowed relation of public debt to GDP. Is this a method of self-complacency or is it something related to the laws of the economy?

- The government of Belarus has so "no-nonsense" politicians who are ready to believe in such mantras of taleteller-journalists, official writers and anyone else.

For example, Japan has even greater indicator of the public debt (this is not as awful for developing economy as for Belarusian one). And I'd like to say: "deputies" look up to Japan! Let us have $100 billion of the public debt and you can say to people: hurray, we live like in Japan.

Jokes aside, it's really bad that our economically active population is as much"suppressed" as it has no money at all and has no ability to invest in the country. So, we have to borrow money abroad all the time.

And figures are being constantly adjusted to make the picture look better. Our "deputies" and the government remind of D students. They adjust answers to what has been said by a teacher. This is all they can do.

- The figures are adjusted; this is clear. What is the "real temperature of the patient"? what is his state?

- Since the beginning of 2016 the Belarusian economy has dropped by almost 40% It happened only in the early 1990s. Moreover, if our neighbors - Russians, Ukrainians, Kazakhs and others - went through a phase of radical break-up, Belarus froze loss-making sectors of the economy.

And then, in 2016, it all dropped by 37%. Therefore, if statistics or an international agency say that today we have a "growth" of GDP by 1%, in fact, it means a fall of -37%.

At the same time Lukashenka wants to do the following - "to increase" salaries up to $500. First, it's silly. Second, it's really silly. Third, we don't need it and it's impossible in real terms.

Metaphorically speaking, the state of the Belarusian economy is of green and blue colors. There is no more space for it to fall and now it just goes on its knees.