What surprises will there be in the Belarusian economy in 2019?
Economist Siarhei Chaly has given a not very optimistic forecast for the year in his commentary to tut.by, due to the fact that “external risks are working towards lowering the rates of our economic growth, thus contributing to positive surprises”:
– All these trends that appeared in our country in the second half of 2018: the slowdown in recovery growth, the price of oil, the deterioration in the price situation for our exports, the increase in imports due to the stimulation of domestic demand – owing to them, we are entering a flagging path of development.
According to him, after the crisis of 2014-2015, when the macroeconomic situation completely changed, there was some rebalancing of business models in Belarus:
– In the first place, it manifested itself in the private sector. It was a source of recovery growth that began in the fourth quarter of 2016 and continued until around the third quarter of 2018. Now an inertial thing is happening: we are doomed to the gradual slowdown of the economic growth.
According to the economist, the foreign economic situation does not inspire optimism either, since “there is a high chance of slowing-up in the global economic growth.”
– External risks are working towards lowering the rate of our economic growth... We must prepare for the fact that will not get the 4% economic growth that we need. The growth rates will be lower than last year. I think that 1.5-2% is rather an optimistic forecast. And surprises will be rather in the direction of deterioration, not improvement, – Siarhei Chaly sums up.