Medical Fact - Lukashenka Cannot Control the Protest

The position of the usurper is getting weaker every day.

The 78th day of the civil confrontation in Belarus passed. After Hong Kong, this is the world's largest civilian confrontation with the dictatorship. The significance of its outcome goes far beyond the internal political crisis in a single small country. It (the outcome) will have an impact on the prospects of the global confrontation between anti-liberal and liberal capitalism in the modern world and the future of Russia.

On Sunday, Lukashenka's regime once again used flash grenades and rubber bullets against peaceful and unarmed protesters. If one neglects this fact, the bullets may be no longer of rubber soon. Small events result in high consequences. It is the magic of history.

Lukashenka can not control the protest. It is a medical fact. Every his attempt to refute this statement make him weaker every day. He loses his position in the eyes of the paternalistic part of the Belarusian population as he cannot demonstrate his authoritarian credibility. In the eyes of younger strata, he is a daddy everyone is sick and tired of. His statements do not work; they are annoying.

The Kremlin is at a loss. They believed that a small political crisis of Lukashenka's regime was an ideal way to take over Belarus. Now, the Kremlin's resources turn to be very limited: too obvious interference immediately triggers an anti-Russian consolidation involving even groups loyal to Lukashenka.

However, the level of violence the nation and world public opinion can tolerate is questionable. Any political crisis and world political history is always an issue of the acceptable level of violence. If everything is allowed, the political institutions will be increasingly rigid and primitive. If there are limits to the level of violence, it will be necessary to come up with something more complicated, with more participants and veto players. And the meaning of any political crisis is experimental testing of the acceptable level of violence. In the way, this issue will be solved at the current level of social development.

Kirill Rogov, Rosbalt