Is Biden administration preparing a blow to the regime in Belarus?
The dismantling of the old system has begun in the post-Soviet space.
I can say this article is a development and continuation of my previous article "The New Cycle".
Let us first consider the nearest political prospects of America. Are there any serious factors that could prevent the elected president Joe Biden from coming to power on January 20, 2021? Experts say no.
The Economist, the latest issue of London's authoritative weekly (21.11.20), keeps all American electoral topics to a minimum (how long!) Only two small articles ("The Art of Losing" and "(Trump) The White House is coming to a bitter end; Trump's refusal to surrender damages America") describe Trump's rather pathetic attempts to stay in power at any cost.
Moreover, the stock exchange and America's financial system as a whole have already given up Trump. The serious growth of the main stock exchange indices this week is vivid proof. On November 24, Dow Jones exceeded the level of 30 000 for the first time! Of course, the main factor of stock exchange growth is the prospect of successful vaccination and, consequently, the end of the epidemic. However, if there was even a slight threat of political instability, there would be no stock exchange growth.
In short, Joe Biden will be the president of America, and Trump supporters - inside and outside America - must accept this. What kind of policy will Joe Biden pursue towards Belarus, Ukraine and Russia? I can't help laughing: many millions of Russian idiots have been dreaming of "the second coming of Uncle Joe (Stalin)" for many years. Their wish seems to have come true: Uncle Joe, only the other one, will stand at the borders of Russia soon. Only, I assume Russian idiots will not be happy about it.
The Russian media - governmental and "systemically oppositional" - are hissing and spitting. While serious Ukrainian and Belarusian Internet sites openly express their expectations. It turns out that even during the election campaign, Joe Biden spoke strongly about Lukashesku and at the same time criticized Trump: "Why does he not respond in any way to the violent events in Belarus?"
We know what the point is: until the very last moment Trump remained, to put it mildly, loyal to Putin and his satellites.
More specifically, the opposition websites in Belarus and Ukraine took the appointment of Anthony Blinken as a state secretary in the future Biden administration as an encouraging fact. The very Anthony Blinken, who held a high position in the Department of State under Obama and became the "real architect" of the system of American sanctions against Russia right after the beginning of Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014.
Blinken has already made several key statements about America's new foreign policy priorities. One can easily understand that now neither Putin nor Lukashenka nor any Moscow-backed scum in Ukraine, can expect carrots.
Biden's statements are even more significant, for example: "America comes back and sits at the head of the table again!" It means a transition from Trump isolationism to before-Trump "internationalism". However, internationalism differs!
Since 2016, Trump has repeated: "One should be friends with Russia" and "Putin is a good guy", and acted accordingly. The anti-Putin sanctions under Trump did not cause the Kremlin any serious harm. (The real test of Trump's ties with Putin is still ahead.)
For Biden, this is impossible. Biden has repeatedly stated that he will not recognize either the annexation of the Crimea or the 'independence' of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Belarusian opposition websites claim that Biden even declared (I don't know when) his desire to "break the back of Putin's regime". Yes, Biden sincerely considers Russia as the main threat to America. There are no doubts about it.
So what will be the first target of Biden's actions?
Experts believe that the real, moreover, destructive actions Biden's administration will take first against Lukashesku. This "fruit" has already ripened and can be pulled off the "Putin's branch" relatively easily. Moreover, the fall of Lukashesku will cause severe damage to Putin's entire system.
What exactly will be done? It is easy to predict. First, Biden will establish effective cooperation - concerning Belarus - with the leaders of France, Germany, Great Britain and the EU leadership. Secondly, he will provide substantial financial assistance to the Belarusian opposition.
That is when the end comes to Lukashesku, and the first stage of destruction of Putin's system will be successfully implemented.
Alexander Nemets, kasparov.ru