Evgeny Gontmakher: Cease Of Supporting Regime meets Russia’s Deep Interests

The Russian economist is sure that the Kremlin only loses when supporting Lukashenka.

Russian economist Yevgeny Gontmakher discusses in an article for the Vtimes website how much Belarus and Aliaksandr Lukashenka will cost for Russia.

- If Aliaksandr Lukashenka remains in power, external sources of financing will be closed, and Russia, in order to prevent the development of the situation according to the Venezuelan scenario (economic downfall, mass impoverishment of the population and the complete collapse of state administration), will have to take on the maintenance 9.5 million Belarusians. How much is it? It will be about tens of billions of dollars a year to maintain at least minimum living standards, the functioning of social and other infrastructure.

To this, losses must be added - both from Western sanctions and from economic chaos - Russian business owns enterprises and banks in Belarus.

But most importantly: if Russia continues to support Lukashenka, it will lose the friendly attitude of Belarusians towards itself. If today there are no anti-Russian sentiments in the society and among the democratic representatives of Belarus, they may soon appear. There are first signs.

Belarusians will always remember that Russia was the only country that effectively contributed to the retention in power of a dictator who persecutes his own people. Apparently, poor Russians will not have positive feelings towards Belarus, which is eating away a piece of their pie.

There is another variant of the development of events, which meets the deep interests of our states. It is simple and straightforward: Russia will end any support for the Lukashenka regime. The subsequent events - and above all the release of all political prisoners and the holding of free elections - will not only eliminate the risks of the Belarusian economic and social catastrophe, but will also give a second wind to partnership relations between our two countries.

The protest in Belarus unites the whole society, and there are enough partners with whom to start a dialogue. Some are forced to live in emigration, or held in prison, many represent business, but now we need to build the future of the union relations. And then, what is most important, the most valuable thing will not be lost - the mutual sympathy of the Russian and Belarusian peoples.