"There Is a Real Revolution Going on in Belarus — From Top to Bottom"

This process can only end with a change of government.

Journalists of the newspaper Belorusy i Rynok discussed the situation in Belarus with political scientist, senior analyst of the Center for European Transformation Andrei Yahorau and sociologist, analyst, former director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus Henadz Korshunau.

- A real revolution is going on in Belarus, which affects the entire society from top to bottom. It is difficult for me to name at least one social group whose representatives do not manifest disagreement. Even if we take the law enforcement agencies, after August 9, some employees left this structure and publicly announced this. We do not have a rebellion or some kind of social movement that involves the performance of one or more social groups. Everything is in motion, - said Andrei Yahorau.

- When we talk about protests, really, the first thing that comes to mind is the street: general marches, pensioners' marches, marches of people with disabilities, women's marches. But all this is just the tip of the iceberg. Its underwater part is much larger, and deep processes take place there. Almost all professional communities have written collective letters; people are leaving the Belarusian Republican Youth Union, Belaya Rus, and pro-government trade unions. And there are many such levels: from corporate communities to solidarity in the courtyards. Therefore, it would be more correct to call what is happening not protests (because in this case, we record only the street activity) but a revolution, - noted Henadz Korshunau.

The revolutionary process cannot be reversed, experts say.

We already have a de facto state of emergency, with criminal prosecution for participation in peaceful rallies, police patrolling in areas, and an overwhelming level of brutality and cruelty from the security forces. But even when faced with all the possibilities of authority, people still continue to protest. Hence the conclusion: this process cannot fade. Protest movements will mutate, change forms, and adapt to the situation. I do not exclude that due to the high cost of participation in street actions, the protests may stop for a while, but only in order to deepen and then reappear, - believes Andrei Yahorau.

- Today, the structure of people's lives is changing. In their daily activities, they do not rely on the state but organize themselves and decide what to do. This is a completely different system of organizing society. Therefore, there will be no attenuation. Tectonic shifts occurring at all levels cannot be stopped, - said Henadz Korshunau. "Moreover, the specificity of the Belarusian mentality is that, in our center, it is not "I," but the family. Parents say: "I go out for the children," grandparents go out "for the sake of their grandchildren," and in atonement for not going out before. People go out so that their children and grandchildren do not have to go out in five years. This is the deepest motivation, and I don't know what can interrupt it.

Andrei Yahorau added that another strong motivation for people is the desire to avoid the risks of the future: "If I don't leave, a participant of the Belarusian street protests thinks, they will win. And if they win, then my risks will be much higher than the risks I bear by participating in the marches. Maryja Kalesnikava once said that "if we don't win, everyone will be rolled into asphalt." And when we conducted surveys on the streets, many people repeated this very phrase.

- There is an opinion that if the protest were more radical in August, we would already be living in another state and with fewer victims. Do you think so too?

H.K. - No. If Lukashenka left on August 16, it would not change anything because the state is a system of values and institutions that govern people's lives. We would still have the same system. And one of the most important things that are happening now in society is the creation and awareness of a huge collective "WE."

A.Y. - In the long resistance, the Belarusian society goes through its own formation. Spontaneously emerging solidarity and sudden victory could lead people to return to their usual forms of life. And long-term resistance forces the Belarusians to build solidarity in everyday practice. And this is becoming the norm for people. Let's think about what would not have happened if the protesters had won a victory in August. There would be no local courtyard self-organization and its animation into thousands of chats and communities. District flags appeared only in September. Bringing students and faculty together based on political demands and academic freedom is unique. We have received the beginnings of civil society in almost all professional and territorial communities. And all this might not have happened if we had won in August.

- So, how will events develop in our country further?

A.Y. - This question is impossible to answer, being inside the developing revolution. A revolution is a spontaneous and unpredictable thing. We are in a unique historical situation and cannot be guided by any sample from the past. Yes, you can retain power by force. But this makes society closed and cuts off opportunities for economic growth. In the modern world, such regimes survive no more than two years. Only now, the price will rise both for them and the entire Belarusian society.

H.K. - The Belarusian people are now like a child who grows muscles. He is loose and does not yet understand what to do with it. We are in the process of forming a collective subjectivity. Also, many factors influence what is happening inside and outside Belarus. Therefore, no one can predict how the situation will unfold. It can be resolved tomorrow in the most unimaginable way. But it can also be delayed for some time.