There will be enough reasons for it this year.
The political crisis in Belarus, which escalated after the presidential election in 2020, has already shown signs of permanent, political analyst of the People's Diplomacy Foundation for the Development of Civil Society Institutions Yevgeny Valyaev says in an interview with svpressa.ru.
The political analyst notes that "the second wave of protests" will cover Lukashenka soon:
- "The Belarusian authorities and the opposition have opposite positions on most issues relating to the future of the country.
Such a crisis will inevitably cause aggravations with specific informational reasons. The "second wave" (mass protests - editor's note) is the next information trigger that becomes a reason for new mass street protests.
There will be enough reasons for it this year. It starts from arrests and trials against political activists ending with the holding of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly and discussions on amendments to the Constitution.
The post-election wave of protests demonstrated its high resilience: the protests were continuous, varied in format, and involved a wide range of social groups. The cold is not the main reason for the decrease in protest activity. They have lasted for a long time. People needed a pause, which coincided with the New Year vacation.
If one recalls the Ukrainian Maidan, the so-called "protest nucleus" protested during the coldest days. The largest number of people gathered in the centre of Kyiv around the main Maidan stage. When there were many people at the rally, the last decisive words about the overthrow of Yanukovich were uttered. Although, in late December 2013, many people said that the Maidan had lingered and it had no prospects. During the New Year vacation, it was not active. The evening rallies near the main stage attracted few people. The events of Euromaidan began in late November 2013 and ended in late February 2014. It was time when all forms of pressure on the authorities intensified - both street protest activity and information support in the media and the Internet.
During Belarusian protests, the authorities made all possible mistakes, which only expanded the electoral base of the opposition - violence against political activists, lack of even the slightest attempt to engage in dialogue, the use of hatred towards the protesters. Attempts of Lukashenka's entourage to use more accurate political techniques to lower the degree of hatred in the society faced the willfulness and intransigence of Lukashenka. His speeches at hastily assembled rallies did not aim at reconciliation and dialogue but became a reason for new micro-waves of protests.
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- Joe Biden's inauguration will affect the change of Washington's policy towards Minsk. Trump's isolationism implied neglect of the domestic political situation not only in Russia but also in Belarus. Biden's new office - Harris, Sullivan, Nuland, Burns, Blinken, and others - demonstrates Washington's intention to be active on the world political arena.