No One Can Help Cockroach Any More

The protest wave will grow and strengthen.

On January 23, street protests in support of detained opposition politician Alexei Navalny were held in a number of Russian cities. According to police data, about 4,000 people took part in the rally in Moscow. Independent observers say the number was as high as 50 thousand.

Member of the UCP political council Leu Marholin commented on how the events in Russia would affect the situation in Belarus in his commentary to udf.by.

"Everything will depend on the situation. If the protest actions remain at the level at which they were after the Moscow elections in 2019, it will have no consequences for the internal political situation in Russia and, accordingly, will have no impact on Belarus. If the protest wave grows and strengthens, then it is quite possible that it will have an impact on the situation in our country - and I think in a positive way," - Marholin said.

Why does he think so?

"Russia will simply not care about Belarus, and Lukashenka will be left alone with the problems he has. He can only count on very limited support and assistance from Russia, no one else will help him," - Marholin said.

The expert means, first of all, the force support promised earlier by Vladimir Putin.

"There were promises that if the situation in Belarus gets out of control, Russia may provide support. This cannot help but worry the Belarusians: there has been repeated information in the network that here and there people in unknown uniforms and military vehicles have been seen. There is a subconscious anxiety that Russia will cover up for Lukashenka, which affects people's readiness to protest. And if the street activity in Russia intensifies, the Kremlin will have no time for Lukashenka, it won't have the strength to interfere in Belarusian affairs," - Marholin believes.