The cycle has closed.
A year has passed since major rallies, but the system is again entering a phase of tension.
The regime has reached the September levels in the degree of "jitter." The current situation is a complete failure for it, writes the CYNIC telegram channel.
1) The West is consolidated. All regimes loyal to Lukashenka collapse by coincidence (elections, corruption scandals). The "locomotive of the EU" - Germany - officially begins to declare what was previously unimaginable.
Europe sees only Lukashenka as the culprit of the migration crisis, so it does not hesitate to express the correct position from the official tribunes.
Poland says that the regime should drown in migrants, which is, in fact, the toughest wording the EU and its representatives have ever allowed themselves.
2) China and India are going into neutrality. And China is very close to the phase of possible negotiations with the opposition.
China only needs a "tunnel" to Europe with a stable regime, stable international relations, and an open market. The Lukashenka regime cannot provide any of this, therefore, instead of stabilizing it, it will be much easier and cheaper to come to an agreement with the new authorities, especially since they will be legitimate and reliable, unlike the “scammer.”
Until Lukashenka restores the previous level of open cooperation with Europe (and he will never do that), China will not be on his side. And the more the crisis gets worse, the greater the chance that the Chinese will go to the "government in exile," which will be helped to turn the board over. For certain preferences, of course, but mostly trade-related.
The Chinese are wise men, they realized that "exporting ideology" is harmful to building an "empire", especially if this empire does not proclaim liberal rights and freedoms.
3) Russia is pushing Lukashenka to a referendum more and more, so the dictator is afraid that they will start looking at the authorities through him, negotiating with other officials from the administration or even the opposition.
But no matter how much he yells that "he will not give up the power," he no longer decides anything: he can make a fuss in a concentration camp, but he cannot do more - there is no subjectivity left, even Europe is talking about the case of migrants with Russia, saying that they should tear moose's horns off.
It hurts to become a political zero, but it has already happened.
Belarus goes into the second round. The regime will not survive the second "August."