Political Analyst: Lukashenka Fears "Day X" When One Forsakes Him

The cockroach is full of anxiety.

During the meeting on covid on October 19th (his fourth wave is even more severe than the previous ones), Aliaksandr Lukashenka unmasked the "enemy", as political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky wrote on naviny.online.

Moreover, he drew attention to them the day before when he made, as his press service stated, "personnel decisions in the state security system" (it is noteworthy that the appointments remained anonymous).

On 18 October, another personnel day, Lukashenka recalled that "the situation remains tense, and we are not allowed to calm down".

"You know better than anyone else," said Lukashenka, addressing the people in uniform, whose faces were blurred in the TV report, "that the failed coup attempt has not changed the plans of the enemy".

It is indicative that Lukashenka, who repeatedly called "to turn the page" and assured that "the protests had been suppressed". Again and again, he stirs up his subordinates, urging them not to relax, because the enemy is watchful and makes backroom deals.

It means the big bosses do not believe in an unconditional, final "victory".

All the same, as we can see, the big bosses are in the throes of anxiety.

In general, the staff of Lukashenka's opponents do not seem to have a good plan on how to impose "their game". In general, it seems that Lukashenka knows more about "the day X" than those who want to throw him off.

At the meeting on the coronavirus, Lukashenka admitted that the pandemic had influenced the political behaviour of Belarusians during last year's presidential campaign: "The most important trigger was the covid. Who doesn't understand that?" And now, they say, "political blackmail and using [the pandemic against the authorities] in this wave starts".

It is only worth adding that then, last year, the authorities gave people, including those far removed from politics, a reason for mass discontent. Everyone remembers who was boasting, advising to treat the virus with baths, vodka, tractor, stroking of white goats, claiming that those who died of covid were themselves to blame: this one was too fat, and that one was walking around on the street (although one had to go to work because the lockdown was not announced).

On the 19th of October, the participants of the meeting mainly had no masks ("muzzles", as Cockroach once contemptuously said). In general, Lukashenka took to task his subordinates for the intention to punish the violators of the mask regime: "You see, they have started to fine people. Who gave you the right to that? What law does stipulate that you have the right to fine people?"

It also caused indignation that "they are already forcing people to vaccinate ". Although this is obvious hyperbole.

Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Ivan Kubrakov faced unpleasant rhetorical questions: "Don't you have anything to do? Why do you break the law? We do not have such a law. Who are you playing along with?"

Meanwhile, Lukashenka told prosecutors last fall that "sometimes there is no time for laws" in the situation of repression of protests. And the law enforcers made full use of this carte blanche. One can imagine the thoughts in the heads under the caps (and under the hats of the civilian vertical servants).

Though in reality, Lukashenka is always thinking about threats to his power. He stressed that the opponents of the state from abroad want to stir up the country by spreading fakes and rumours about the situation in Belarus.

However, the problem is not that the "enemies" are zealous. The problem is in the low trust of citizens in the authorities. They have been caught in, to put it mildly, insincerity too often. Judging by social media and household conversations, many people consider the official statistics on covid very low.

Mistrust towards the official figures on presidential election results that took people to the streets last August.