Delayed Wages or Collapse of the Banking System: What Will Bring Belarusians to the Streets?

Revolutionary sentiments have not gone anywhere.

On Friday, May 7, all Minsk was in 10-point traffic jams. The center and the ring were still. It was not a protest, but people were leaving the city en masse. As a result, on May 9, the official holiday did not collect any serious figures, writes the Reflection and Reaction Telegram channel.

This says a lot about the mood of people. If we talk about Minsk, it can be estimated that 70-80% of those who were in traffic jams on Friday night voted for Tsikhanouskaya in August last year. For today, they had one thought - to leave the city as soon as possible, relax, take a break from the emotionally difficult winter.

The Telegram channel is trying to predict what will become a new reason for protests in Belarus:

- In this context, there are many hypotheses of what can become a new trigger for protest because the mood has not gone anywhere. And here, in our opinion, we need to look at how much this event can affect everyone. The disappearance of dollars from exchange offices or a jump in the exchange rate, the collapse of the banking system, empty shelves. Infrastructure collapse of the republican scale. Gasoline shortage or a sharp jump in its cost. Massive delays in pensions and salaries for state employees.

All these triggers are in one way or another of the economic plane. For the first quarter, the budget deficit reached almost an annual level compared to last year. In the context of its growth and reduction of the revenue side (sanctions on the oil industry), sooner or later, a decision will be made, which along the chain will cause something from the above-mentioned. We don’t know what, and we don’t know how decisions will be made. May will be relatively calm for now due to the April quarterly taxes and contracted oil reserves. But, in June, it may already be more interesting. There is no trust in the state, so any economic problem will be instantly worsened due to the panic behavior of the population.