Former Head Of National Bank Of Belarus: Fermentation Taking Place In Many Power Structures, I Expect Uprising

People don't trust the banking system completely.

Belarusians continue to withdraw their deposits from banks. According to the latest information, the population took 44% of foreign currency deposits. Charter97.org asked former chairman of the National Bank Stanislau Bahdankevich to comment on the situation in the country:

- I assess the situation as extremely critical. The country has a distrust of the banking system and the stability of the national currency. People withdraw their deposits because of the policy of the National Bank, which has lowered deposit rates on term deposits, and for foreign currency, the interest does not exceed two at all. This is not a market rate, but an administrative rate set by the state represented by the National Bank.

- Why did people in Belarus stop trusting the banking system?

- The power is illegitimate. If it were legitimate, then there would be trust. People see that this group has seized power, otherwise it simply cannot be described. There is a whole range of questions that lead to the fact that people are ready to keep their savings under the pillow, in stockings, wallets, and not in banks.

Interest rates on deposits are also low in civilized countries, but there people put money in the name of their preservation, and we have an understanding that this illegitimate government at any time can announce some kind of administrative measures for the compulsory use of someone else's property. Suppose they give a decree that it will not be possible to use their money, it will not be possible to withdraw from the account, especially when the ruble depreciates.

This problem should be considered broadly. The National Bank today maintains a stable exchange rate, but this retention is due to the fact that it limits the growth of the broad money supply. Today the money supply of the plant can grow up to 11%, as is laid down in the monetary policy. In fact, it has grown by 0.3%, that is, it has frozen, not growing. If you believe our statistics that the gross product is still growing by more than 2 percent, then the money supply should be at least 3%, but we do not have this. This is evidence that banks have limited real lending to the economy. Why was it limited? Because of distrust. All this is a combination of reasons that are evidence of an extremely dysfunctional economy, I would say, a crisis one.

- From the maximum, foreign currency deposits decreased by 3.4 billion. If this trend continues, how will it affect the economy? How strong will the blow against the power itself and the Lukashenka regime be?

-When our people took to the streets after the rigged elections, they hoped that the government was at least to some extent civilized: it would see the people's anger, mistrust, and resign. However, the regime does not resign, and we know that dictatorial regimes can bring the people to poverty. A prime example is North Korea, where people are starving. Certainly, the decline in confidence will intensify even more, and the impoverishment and deterioration of life will increase.

The dictatorship may not give up power, so other measures are needed. I mean that officials who are closer to the people, not at high ranks, but at lower ranks, so that they can express their displeasure, have started a strike. The same is with the heads of enterprises and banks, in order to make public statements to the authorities, they also understand the situation.

What is deposit reduction? This is a decrease in the money supply, that is, there are no resources for the normal functioning of the economy, and we also have a large amount of unsold products in warehouses, huge accounts payable. The outlook is extremely unfavorable for the development of the economy and for the well-being of the population.

- To what extent will the US sanctions against Belneftekhim and the subsequent refusal of Western banks to finance transactions on purchases of Belarusian oil refining products affect the foreign exchange earnings of enterprises in the country? How can this affect the finances of Belarus and the ruble exchange rate?

- I am afraid that Russia, to the detriment of its economy, will supply oil to Belarus. The Russian government is very close in spirit and structure to the Belarusian one. I judge by hockey. Recently it was reported that Putin's team scored 12 goals to their opponents. Including 8 - Putin himself, 2 - Shoigu, and the remaining two were scored by privates. Is it possible to believe that such hockey is legitimate, honest and conscientious? It is the slaves who play for their master, and he boasts about it. We have the same thing, flock of the feather flies together.

I do not think that the US sanctions will affect Russia, it will deliver oil to the detriment of the Russians, because these are the same type of dictatorial and authoritarian regimes.

- The economic and political situation in the country remains rather tense. What can the regime come up with to keep the currency that is needed to pay off interest on foreign loans? Is there a threat to the foreign currency savings of citizens who have not yet managed to collect them from banks?

- Of course, there is a threat, but it is necessary to remember that Russia also has an anti-people totalitarian regime, so it can support the Belarusian regime with additional loans.

Of course, there is always hope, maybe the Russian people want some kind of restructuring. Let's see what the elections to the State Duma, which are scheduled for the fall, will show. Maybe this will be a chance for Belarus. In our country, legitimacy can be restored only through a riot, an uprising, because the elections are falsified, so there is no other way but a coup. Look at the fact that colonels, majors and so on were stripped of their ranks, which means that there is ferment among the security forces, so maybe they will go over to the side of the people. Perhaps not today, not tomorrow, but they will.

Belarus has slipped to the very bottom of Europe in terms of pensions, wages, we are already together with Moldova and Albania, and could be higher than Poland. With the Poles, we started from the same position, if we look at the level of income per capita or gross product, but now we are at the very bottom. This is all the result of the rule of one person. Unfortunately, among those officials who are in power, little is said about this. Even those involved in statistics, finance, economics. Although fermentation is taking place in many power structures, they all perfectly understand where we are heading, but so far they are silent.

- Many experts believe that the days of Lukashenka’s regime are numbered and its fall is just a matter of time. Do you agree with this opinion? What signs suggest this?

- I agree, this is the past. He cannot stay in power, the Belarusian regime has exhausted itself. The so-called "resignation" may be even today, or it may be delayed.

One part of me also believes that if not today, then tomorrow, but it will fall, the other part fears for our people, which are still playing with tolerance, refusing to rebel and this allows the regime to hold on.

- Do you think the Belarusians will come out again, as it was in August?

- I expect an uprising more than taking to the streets. The man will come out, and then he will be imprisoned for 15 days. Unfortunately, we have such a situation, so I am a supporter of the fact that the people need to unite, and the power structures should defend the people. If the security forces took the side of the people, then the people would have taken to the street, of course. I am 84 years old, and my wife is a little younger, and she went to the marches of pensioners. Now we are sitting, waiting, maybe they took a picture somewhere and can put her in prison. This is the case in our country, so I am a supporter of a different idea.

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