Opinion: Process Capable Of Causing Same Consequences For Belarusian Banks As Disconnection From SWIFT System Has Started

Has Raiffeisen Bank triggered the domino effect?

Yesterday the Austrian newspaper Die Presse reported that Raiffeisen Bank is stopping international transfers for Belarusbank.

"You may remember, there was a case long ago, you and I discussed the prospects for disconnecting Belarusian banks from the international SWIFT system. And, of course, we came to the conclusion that this is very unlikely," writes the Letters to Daughter Telegram channel with regard to this news:

- But the practice of life is more varied than any theories. So the decision of Raiffeisen Bank is the beginning of a process that de facto may have about the same consequences for the Belarusian financial system as disconnection from the SWIFT system. Because when a bank stops receiving international transfers, it means that its clients can neither pay nor receive money under their external contracts. Who needs a partner who doesn't pay?

Of course, Belarusbank is not the only bank in the country. Yes, and there are more ways to the wood than one Raiffeisen Bank. They can find other banks. However, Raiffeisen Bank is the only western bank that has a Belarusian daughter. So his decision is an eloquent example for the rest. Because, unlike the rest, it has something to lose here. But it turns out that the bank has counted, calculated, and decided that it is better to lose everything that they have gained here by back-breaking labor than to risk the unpredictable consequences of cooperation with the state-owned Belarusian bank. Because in the first case, the scale of potential losses is at least known in advance.

And, of course, even if all Western banks follow Raiffeisen's example, there will still be Russian banks. And Russian banks are not going anywhere. Well, most likely, they will not go anywhere. That is, financial support of export contracts, theoretically, can be carried out through some Vnesheconombank. But practically ... Are there many companies in Europe that would like to receive money through Magadan? (I mean - using complex and non-transparent payment schemes). Do not answer. It was a rhetorical question. Considering the dubious premium nature of the Belarusian market and the peculiarities of the reputation of the Belarusian authorities, I doubt that there will be many volunteers.

These are the sanctions that the EU imposed against Belarusbank, because in fact they did not provide for such radical measures as a ban on international transfers. It was just about restrictions on the issuance of loans. And it turns out that the self-restraint introduced by Raiffeisen Bank was exclusively its private initiative. This is the very indirect consequence of the sanctions, the harm from which is much greater than from the sanctions themselves.

Meanwhile, as the internal Belarusian crisis develops into a regional problem, there will be fewer and fewer people willing to deal with the Belarusian authorities. Because dealing with a government of alternative legitimacy is one thing, but signing contracts with a government that threatens European security is another. In the first case, you will simply be scolded for the lack of solid moral guidelines, and in the second, you risk running into specific legal consequences.