Valery Karbalevich: Lukashenka Is a Factor of Destabilization

The longer he is in power, the more the country sinks into turbulence.

In an article for Radio Svaboda, political scientist Valery Karbalevich expressed the opinion that, by his actions, Lukashenka undermines the motivation of even his few fans:

- In a certain part of society, especially among Lukashenka's supporters, there is a clear need for stability, even if in the form of stagnation and mild authoritarianism.

However, there is one big problem along the way. It has a first and last name. Aliaksandr Lukashenka himself does not allow turning the page.

The entire policy of the regime is aimed at artificially creating an emergency, extreme situation, deliberately escalating tension, bringing the political struggle to the stage of psychological war, mass hysteria.

It is not only a matter of large-scale repression and routinization of violence. Although this keeps the power structures in a state of permanent mobilization.

When a man in the street turns on BT, he sees that there is no peace and stability in the country. Endless hysteria. According to state media reports, the country is in a state of continuous war with internal and external enemies.

Some extremists, terrorists, snipers have flooded the country. Weapons are imported to Belarus all the time. Spies have been identified at the enterprises. What stability can there be if there are enemies around?

You don't have to watch BT. But the state "gets" the average citizen at every step. If the previous 26 years the government pursued a policy of demobilization and depoliticization of society, now it's vice versa.

Last year, the authorities embarked on an artificial political mobilization of society. It became impossible to get away from politics. In labor collectives, people are forced to sign various petitions in support of the regime, some statements of protest against Western sanctions.

Before our very eyes, schools are being placed under barracks status, and teachers are being turned into "commissars in dusty helmets." Athletes are forced to publicly demonstrate loyalty. Housing and utility workers are forced to ensure that there are no protest symbols anywhere. Enterprise administrations are required to identify and catch spies. And so on.

The government is focused exclusively on solving the problems of survival, is in constant stress, and, therefore, cannot solve other problems and urgent tasks facing the country.

Finally, Belarus got involved in endless external conflicts. Lukashenka turned the internal political crisis into an acute regional problem, a crisis of international security. The external isolation of the country and the status of the outcast became obvious and can no longer be hidden.

And it was the provocations of the official Minsk that led to serious sanctions from the West. Real economic sanctions from the EU and the US were introduced only in the summer, after the incident with the plane. All previous restrictions were rather symbolic, more like to scare.

Now the crisis of migrants, organized by the authorities, is growing. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called it "an attack on the Polish border." In response, the EU is preparing the fifth package of sanctions, possibly a tougher one. Lukashenka spoke about a military confrontation with Ukraine.

And the country faces serious losses from the sanctions ahead with unknown, unpredictable consequences. People intuitively feel this, so they withdraw bank deposits. If we compare the situation with Soviet times, then from the period of stagnation and stability of the Brezhnev era, the country was suddenly thrown back within a year into the period of Stalin's rule.

That is, the longer Lukashenka is in power, the more the country sinks into turbulence. The cost of preserving his power for people, including the "Yabatski," is increasing.

It turns out that Lukashenka, who has been the guarantor of stability for 26 years, has now become a serious factor of destabilization. And thus he undermines the motivation of his fans to support him.