Political Scientist on Sanctions against the Lukashenka Regime: Blocking Transit Would Be a Sensitive Measure

This could force the Belarusian authorities to negotiate.

Political analyst Dzmitry Balkunets in his Telegram channel commented on the forthcoming new package of sanctions against the Lukashenka regime:

- The most sensitive measure could be the complete blocking of all transit of goods that travel through the territory of Belarus. If European politicians were capable of decisive measures, then it is precisely the closure of transit, along with other tough measures, that could force Lukashenka to release all political prisoners and sit down to discuss the format and timing of new elections. So far, Europe is limiting itself to half-measures.

The volume of transit traffic via Belarus in communication China - Europe - China in 2020 through the Belarusian Railways passed more than 550 thousand containers. Of these, the volume of transit along the China-Europe route amounted to almost 70% and along the Europe-China route - 30%.

Up to 500 transit container trains run along the Belarusian Railways every month. The main role in transportation is played by the successfully operating Kaliadzichy transport and logistics terminal, where the consolidation and processing of the container flow from China, as well as in the opposite direction - from the regions of Belarus with further movement to China by organized trains, is organized.

There are no alternatives to Belarusian transit.

The railway of Ukraine is worn out. Its restoration and creation of logistics terminals similar to those in Belarus will take time and money.

The Baltic direction should not be considered seriously since transshipment capacities comparable to those in Belarus will have to be created from scratch.