Mukhtar Ablyazov: For Tokayev And Nazarbayev, Situation Comes When Everything Hangs By

Once people realize the level of their national betrayal, events will spiral out of control.

What is happening now around the so-called CSTO peacekeeping mission, can we talk about the confrontation between the current President of Kazakhstan Tokayev and the first President Nazarbayev, what is happening now with Nazarbayev and his family?

Mukhtar Ablyazov, a Kazakh opposition leader and head of the Democratic Choice movement banned in Kazakhstan, is answering the questions of Present Time.

- Tokayev has formally addressed, but it is clear that all issues were solved by Nazarbayev. This appeal took place urgently, because in Almaty the riot police went over to the side of the people, part of the military began to go over. And in fact, Nazarbayev realized that the situation had become unmanageable. The power structures, which he planned to rely on to keep his regime, suddenly became unreliable. And in this situation, there was an urgent appeal to Putin - not just anyone, namely Putin, because the so-called CSTO is supported by Putin's troops, and all the rest are just fig leaves to say that all countries have decided. Putin decides everything.

Lukashenka himself leaked the whole situation, that at night they called, agreed and decided to send troops. I would like to remind you that when the Kyrgyz asked in 2010, Nazarbayev and Putin said that this was an internal matter. In 2010, there were serious events in the south of Kyrgyzstan, the real war was in the Osh region.

- Many say that what is happening now in Kazakhstan is the confrontation between Tokayev and Nazarbayev. What is your opinion?

- I always adhere to the opinion, knowing both Tokayev and Nazarbayev, that Tokayev cannot have an opinion, he cannot resist, because he is a piece of furniture. Today he is Nazarbayev's furniture, but as soon as Putin's troops enter Kazakhstan, the situation becomes very vulnerable. And now the decisive voice who makes the final decision is Putin. Because even if Nazarbayev eventually agreed with him, proceeding from old relations, that he continues to control and influence the situation, now Putin's interests are becoming such that he can cancel these agreements at any time. Due to the fact that the “chair” is sitting there, Russian troops are under their noses, but Kazakh troops are nonexistent, they do not instill confidence and a state of reliability, then, of course, Tokayev will do what Putin tells him. Putin will say very politely, gently. Nazarbayev is far away, those Nazarbayev people who are nearby will also be silent.

In fact, we are now in a situation where external control over Kazakhstan was introduced by Putin. Actually, this “chair”, or, as we say, furniture, becomes Putin's furniture. Whether this will be the case tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, or in a month - it depends on various factors: on international pressure or reaction, on internal resistance. We will see this very soon. The situation changed dramatically after Putin's troops entered. If I used to say all the time that Tokayev does not decide anything, all these conflicts are nonsense, a person is not able to enter into conflicts with his patron, now he has a new patron - and the situation has become destabilized. This political destabilization will lead to an overall disturbance in the region.

In fact, Putin is consistently developing the idea of building up the former Soviet Union. You can draw on the map, and allegedly more or less agree with everyone. But he does not take into account the reality that people are different, and there will be civil resistance. In the case of Kazakhstan, it is very convenient for him. If they had to drive “little green men” to Crimea, to fight in the East, and now the troops are pulled up to the border of Ukraine, then in Kazakhstan everything is convenient: there is a “chair”, which will turn whatever side you say. Now the situation is like this. The only thing that we can see now is that dozens of thousands of people take to the streets. I am sure that as soon as our people realize that sovereignty has been sold, and it is actually sold by national traitors, events will get out of control. And in this situation, the Western countries will be forced to intervene, because otherwise disturbance will lead to the destabilization of a huge region, [there will be] millions of refugees, and they will have to pay a lot for this. Therefore, this is the situation.

- And what role does Nazarbayev have in this whole situation then? There is already talk, unconfirmed information is coming in that he, his daughters and family have already left Kazakhstan.

- They leave Kazakhstan all the time, regularly, and spend very little time in Kazakhstan. And when they do it, the cameras show that they are supposedly in Kazakhstan. They have been living abroad for a long time. The second daughter, Dinara, generally lives in Geneva, she is always waiting for citizenship. They have houses and palaces there. His current common-law wife Asel has the same thing in London - palaces, houses, everything else. Therefore, they live abroad all the time. Therefore, it is not critical that they live there - they lived there before. Another question - have they left for good or not? Now it all depends on whether Putin fulfills the agreements to some extent or not. And if not, then Nazarbayev's “chair” will simply be under Putin's control. This is the way it is.

- The hottest spot on the map of Kazakhstan. Many things have not been confirmed, but dozens of those killed, bullying of the police, shooting in the very center of the city, looted shops, lack of cash, shortage of food are facts. This could have been all avoided, do you think?

- It could have been avoided, but then the situation would have looked different. In fact, the Nazarbayev regime collapsed like a house of cards. It was in Almaty - in such a key city - that a lot of people took to the streets. Of course, in percentage terms, by the way, it is less - in Aktau there were 20 thousand [in the streets] and there [the population is] 170 thousand. Well, let's say over 10%. If about 10% took to the streets in Almaty, it would be 200 thousand, but this didn’t happen, there were, probably, 30-50 thousand. But the people moved decisively. All regions watched what was happening in Almaty, this radically influenced the mood of the people. And those sleepy cities, such as Kyzylorda, Taraz, in which even 50 people did not come out, about 10 thousand people came out in Kyzylorda - this is generally fantastic. In this sense, Almaty was a bad example. And when they began to introduce the army there, the army failed, destabilization set in.

If Nazarbayev hadn’t done such things now — like using force and so on — his power in Astana would have collapsed long ago. That is, in fact, he was forced to use a criminal trick, to say that some people are attacking, destroying, everything else. It was [a way] to discredit the very idea of peaceful rallies, to justify the introduction of troops, to justify an appeal to Putin. Otherwise, this regime would simply have collapsed without external support. It would have just fallen.