Military Expert: There Will Be Several Signals Before Invasion From Belarus

The main warning signs that may appear in the near future have been named.

The invaders need to gather at least 35 thousand soldiers for the new Russian offensive from the territory of Belarus, while currently there are three times fewer.

Defense Express analyst Ivan Kirichevsky says that not only the number of occupation troops, but also other "specific points" may indicate that Belarus is preparing to take direct part in the war against Ukraine.

If Russians really are preparing to attack from the side of Belarus, the columns of troops must be "mixed" - that is, both Lukashenka's military and Russian mobilized must march together in combat order, the expert says.

"The training grounds in Belarus, where the mobilization training of the Belarusian army could be deployed, are now busy training the mobilized Russians. Apparently, the Russians have even started taking some "surplus" ammunition from the warehouses of the Belarusian military for their mobilized. Therefore at this stage, the scenario that Lukashenka's troops will be the main "strike force" of the new offensive to the north of Ukraine is ruled out. It is more likely that Lukashenka's troops will be an "auxiliary force" for the troops of the Russian army," Kirichevsky suggested.

According to Kirichevsky, the real warning sign in this context would be exercises in the style of "Belarusian army aviation trains to support Russian ground forces", or: "Belarusian engineering troops support the Russian army's offensive".

Also a significant indication of preparing for an invasion would be painting Belarusian tanks to match the "pixel" of the AFU or installing additional "armour" on the equipment against hits by Ukrainian weaponry.

In the case of preparations for an offensive, Russia will be transferring additional armaments specifically to the Belarusian troops. The expert suggests that in such a scenario, vehicles of civilian companies will be seized as well.