Lukashenka Received An Extremely Terrible Signal From Putin and Macron

The dictator finally became a bargaining chip.

Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin held talks in Moscow on the evening of February 7. The President of France spoke to the leader of Russia, the Belarusian topic also has been discussed.

"I expressed concern to President Putin about the new draft Constitution of Belarus, which involves the abrogation of two fundamental provisions which concerns the country's status as for 1994, and concern in connection with Lukashenka's statement of December 27 on nuclear weapons. In this regard, I obtained assurances from President Putin," Macron said.

In addition, according to media reports, Macron obtained assurances that Russian troops after the Union Resolve exercises would be withdrawn from the territory of Belarus. Later, Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, confirmed this information.

The udf website asked the experts: what do these statements mean for the Belarusian authorities and Aliaksandr Lukashenka?

“International perception: the Belarusian authorities on their territory do not decide anything without the Russian Federation”

Pavel Matsukevich, the senior researcher at the Centre for New Ideas, noted that the talks between the leaders of Russia and France demonstrated the real influence of the Belarusian authorities on the decision-making processes for the deployment of nuclear weapons and the presence of Russian troops on its territory.

“Noteworthy is that at the meeting with Macron, Putin did not at all redirect the Western guest to Minsk, as it was in the case with the concerns of Germany and France about the migration crisis. But the topic of constitutional changes that were touched upon is merely Belarusian. This shows that from the point of view of international perception, the Belarusian authorities do not decide anything on their territory without Russia. For the Kremlin, the very discussion of the Belarusian topic with Western leaders is a good opportunity to keep its Belarusian ally in tone,” Matsukevich said.

Since August 2020, Macron has repeatedly raised the Belarusian topic in talks with Putin, asking to put pressure on Minsk on various issues. Was this a mind tactic?

“It's quite logical. The Belarusian regime is dependent on Russia in key areas, including the ability to circumvent sanctions and resist international isolation. France is traditionally an active diplomatic player (in Europe at least) and the author of global ideas, trying to serve the role. Although it is probably more correct to talk about the France-Germany tandem. We can again recall the migration crisis, the problem of which Merkel and Macron posed to Putin and resolved with his help. Merkel had telephone talks with Lukashenka as a result of Putin's support and most likely due to certain guarantees on his part, and they managed to reduce tensions on the Belarusian-Polish border,” Matsukevich said.

“Macron understands full well who is the master of the situation”

The only candidate from the opposition in the 2001 presidential election, Vladimir Goncharik, noted that the results of the talks in Moscow stated obvious things.

“Lukashenka's statement about the desire to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus could not be supported for various reasons, including the fact that Moscow does not need it. And it is unlikely that Russian troops could stay in Belarus after the exercises, it is unprofitable for Lukashenka to have them stay here against the backdrop of talks about the loss of sovereignty and independence of the country,” Hancharyk believes.

How to evaluate the fact that the President of France discussed the Belarusian topic with the leader of Russia without representatives of the official Minsk?

“Macron understands full well who is the master of the situation” In addition, the discussion took place in the context of negotiations on Ukraine, the topic No. 1. There is a general view that an attack on it can also be carried out from the territory of Belarus, but after all, Russian troops are meant, not Belarusian ones,” Hancharyk said.

When will the Belarusian crisis again become a valuable subject of talks between the EU and Russia?

“The Belarusian crisis was a hot topic at the very beginning, in 2020, now it is not a hot topic for Europe. When will it become again? Either with the aggravation of the situation in Belarus, or with the threat of safety to other countries from our territory, for example, because of a provocation on the border. But this is not completely excluded because of Lukashenka's nature, since the creation of public awareness is an important deal for him” Hancharyk assumes.