"War Dealt Lukashenka Economy Such Blow That Authorities Just Don't Know What To Do"

What should the Belarusians prepare for?

How does the war in Ukraine change the balance of forces in Belarus? Zmitser Bandarenka, coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign, speaks about it in his interview to Charter97.org.

- In your opinion, is the withdrawal of the Russian troops from Chernihiv and Kyiv direction a trick or is the Kremlin changing its plans?

- Russia has changed its plans because it has not succeeded in storming Kyiv or even Chernihiv. The Russians suffered huge losses in manpower and equipment, so it was necessary to change their approach. We can acknowledge the successful defence of Ukraine, but the battle in the north, in my opinion, is not over yet.

According to the information that is coming in, including from official statements of the American intelligence, some troops are returning to Belarus. Also Russian troops are being moved from the north to the east and even the south of Ukraine.

- The Western intelligence agencies were giving Ukraine 72 hours after the Russian attack. Why have the Ukrainian people stood out?

- It is because they are Ukrainian people and Ukrainian warriors. At one time I served as a conscript in the special forces of Russia's military intelligence service. We had an elite brigade based abroad. There were soldiers from Russia (only from the European part), Ukraine and Belarus. Our officers used to say that the best soldiers in the brigade were Ukrainians, Belarusians came second and Russians - third. Of course, there are individual peculiarities, but this evaluation comes from the officers of the elite unit of the Soviet army.

To be honest, I don't understand the Russians taking such a risk to go to war with Ukraine. They could not conquer several hundred thousand Chechens for eight years. And if Kadyrov dies or leaves now, Chechnya will be ready to go to war with Russia again. And here the Russian Federation has attacked Ukraine, a country of millions of people, which has a huge territory. This is simply a fatal mistake by the Russian rulers.

What is also important is that the Ukrainians are fighting for their land. Their morale is very high.

I should note that Ukraine's military command has been very effective since 2014. Many officers and sergeants have been trained under the NATO system, lots of instructors were from NATO countries, Israel and so on. Everyone notes that the Ukrainians are totally ahead of the Russian army in terms of their ability to fight, to use the weapons and capabilities that they have.

- How does the war in Ukraine change the balance of forces in Belarus?

- I believe that the development of the situation has significantly accelerated now. The victory of Ukraine in the war or, let us say, "not the victory" of Russia in the war, will lead to an inevitable change of power in Belarus.

The bad option for us will be (I have already mentioned this) if the Ukrainian leadership goes along with Putin and takes the various peace agreements seriously, as this is a strong point of the Putin government. We have seen this in Syria and even Libya. Russia always violates peace agreements to its advantage, they cannot be taken seriously.

If this "Minsk" or "Istanbul" agreement is concluded, the situation will be somewhat frozen, and Belarus could once again become a smuggling hub through which sanctions against Russia and the Lukashenka regime itself will be circumvented.

- How likely is social tension in Belarus because of the economic consequences of the sanctions against the Lukashenka regime and the Kremlin?

- For some reason, the Ukrainian leadership trusted Lukashenka and refused to join sanctions of the European Union, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom against the Belarusian regime, which allowed him to stay afloat. That is because there was a direct geographical bypass through Ukrainian territory, as well as various schemes used by Russian oligarchs, the Lukashenka regime and Ukrainian businessmen. It allowed Lukashenka to earn billions of dollars.

With the war these schemes ceased to exist, the pumping of Ukrainian billions into the Belarusian regime stopped and a lot of Belarusian enterprises simply came to a halt.

We know that Belkali, which used to supply up to 40% of the currency to Belarus, has virtually shut down. Many people don't get bonuses, they just take holidays at their own expense. The situation at Hrodna Azot is very tough. Fertilizer producers have problems because Ukraine has seized wagons and they are just no longer there. Even if they wanted to send them along railways around the world - they just do not exist now.

Naturally, other enterprises have been hit as well: MAZ, MTZ. Ukraine used to buy a lot of Belarusian goods as well, our machines used to go to other countries via Ukraine.

In my entire life, in my 58 years, there has probably never been such a catastrophic condition of the Belarusian economy. If they say that the sanctions against Russia have not yet reached their full force, the Lukashenka economy has suffered such a blow that the authorities simply do not know what to do.

- The authorities hope that they will be able to send these goods to the Russian market. Is there such a possibility?

- Partly, an autarky between Russia and Belarus will be built. Some goods will go to the Russian market, but Russia will not pay for them because Lukashenka has already received a loan deferral. Food and cars will go almost for free, because Russia cannot pay for the same goods several times. The most important thing is that there will be no hard currency flow into the country. Trade balance with Russia has always been disastrously negative. The Belarusian regime used to get 80 percent of the entire currency from the sale of potassium, timber and, mainly, oil products from Russian oil to the West. Now it simply will not happen. Both because of the sanctions imposed and because of the disruption of logistical ties and the loss of most markets for the Lukashenka regime.

- Will such a new factor as the Belarusian Kastus Kalinouski battalion and other units fighting in Ukraine have an impact on the situation in Belarus?

- Sure. And it should be noted that there are many men who have joined the Kalinouski battalion and other units as volunteers, they have refused a good job, a secure life in the West. And these men, our heroes, can be admired and they are not only saving the "honour of the nation", risking their lives for the freedom of Ukraine, but also bringing the liberation of our country closer.

And, of course, this factor was crucial in that the Belarusian army did not enter the war on a full scale. Both the Russian leadership and the Lukashists understand that had the Belarusians entered the territory of Ukraine as part of the existing military units, they would have had where to surrender and whom to join.

It may also be noted that the excellent work of Belarusian journalists and bloggers who were able to prepare public opinion in the country towards Russian aggression in Ukraine, as well as the presence of the Kalinouski battalion and other hundreds of Belarusian volunteers, saved Kyiv from capture and largely interfered with the plans Putin had for northern Ukraine that we talked about at the beginning. This is our Belarusian contribution to the common struggle against the Rashists and Lukashists.

- What should Belarusians prepare for today?

- We must put off our infantilism. We can of course tell the Ukrainians that we have always had a situation which is different from that in Ukraine. But let us agree that the Ukrainians are risking much more in the struggle for freedom and independence of their country. And what about our Belarusian independence, is it worth less, or does it not deserve to be fought for? Therefore men, first of all, must get ready for serious action. And the forms of the Belarusian resistance can be very different. There is a lot to choose from.

I think that people who can't leave the country and who can't go as volunteers should prepare for a general strike, we should look for weak points of the regime, we should look for weak points at the specific Belarusian enterprises and a combination of sabotage methods and strikes will at some point become decisive in this whole battle of the democratic world against barbaric dictatorships.

Everyone must set themselves the task of what one can do as a single person, as part of an enterprise, but also as a resident of this or that region. One must be ready for the Belarusian uprising, one must be seriously prepared for it.

We are part of the world forces of good that have risen against two dictatorial regimes, and we will definitely win.

If you like this article, you can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL 97 1160 2202 0000 0002 1671 1123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com