The goal is to cut the country off from western aid.
Lukashenka continues to linger with direct order to invade, while Belarus is indeed preparing for the war, writes Ukrainian expert Oleh Zhdanov in his column for nv.ua website.
All those actions in preparation for the war that Lukashenka is carrying out should not be taken as an attempt to dazzle Putin, unfortunately. Lukashenka raises the degree of tension, and it is already absolutely impossible to ignore it, or say this is just a game.
We are saying that Lukashenka, perhaps, continues to try to delay the moment when he must give the order to invade, but at the same time Belarus is indeed preparing for the war. This is the main threat — they are really preparing for the start of the war.
Military drills have begun in Belarus, they will last until July 8, and the airspace will have been completely closed by then. It is important to note that the ban on flights of international aviation companies has existed for a long time. Only planes of Belarusian and Russian airlines flew to Belarus.
The main directions for the invasion of Belarus into Ukraine are Volyn and Rivne. I don't think they will go any further. Why? Because the main goal of this invasion is, firstly, an attempt to open a second front. So that we fight on two fronts. Any military man will tell you that it is very difficult. No one has yet won a war on two fronts. And the second, and no less important task is an attempt to cut Ukraine off from Western assistance.
And this task, in my opinion, is even more important in its military component than the first one. An invasion by a ground force could take place in the direction of Lutsk-Lviv or Rivne-Lviv or Rivne-Ternopil, and would cut off the main routes for the delivery of Western aid and weapons to Ukraine. The invasion will be carried out by military columns, as the Russians did in February. The terrain in the Volyn and Rivne region is difficult to cross in pre-battle order, and they will be forced to advance in columns and enter the territory of Ukraine. Well, we will give some “welcome” to them here.
A ground invasion is necessarily preceded by a massive missile and air strike. Then, if possible, if there is a range coverage, the artillery joins in, and only then the troops advance. However, the troops will already be marching under the cover of aviation and missile troops. We have something to “meet” both the missile forces and aviation with. By the way, in general, the situation with aviation has more or less improved, and today we all see that Russian aviation almost does not interfere in the airspace of Ukraine. We have learned how to shoot them down, and they are afraid.
As for the missile forces, our air defense system will try to the best of its ability to fight missiles flying from Belarus. Meanwhile, the ground forces will decide the main fate of the invasion troops.
This attack on Ukraine could be the end of Lukashenka. That is why he is trying to delay the date of the invasion for as long as possible. Because today, if he gives the order to start the invasion, it could become a trigger for a social explosion within the country. Or, the failure to give the order could be the trigger for Putin to attempt to remove him from power.
Lukashenka has a very serious threatening position. Moreover, although the army is a power structure, in case of a popular discontent the army could support the people. The military could go over to the side of the people, and refuse to carry out the order to invade. And this can lead to his removal from power. Lukashenka understands these risks. However, he drove himself into such a corner when there is the dissatisfaction of society and the army on the one hand; and Putin, who insists that Belarus intervenes in the situation in Ukraine and enters the war, on the other hand.