Expert: Lukashenka To Use Belarusian Military Same Way As Donbass 'Mobics'

The regime does not have enough strength for a full-fledged war against Ukraine.

If Belarus decides to launch an attack on the territory of Ukraine, the border regions - Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Volyn and Chernihiv regions - will be under threat. However, even taking into account the possibility of mobilizing 30,000 people, the Belarusian troops may not be strong enough anyway. Dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka will face a serious blow to his power if the Belarusians die in the war against the Ukrainian state, taken that the idea of war is not supported in the Belarusian society. Andrei Zolotarev, a political scientist and the head of the Third Sector analytical centre, stated this.

In an interview with Glavred, he said that in case Belarus attacks Ukraine, four regions bordering the Belarusian republic would be under threat. The Ukrainian army would be forced to redeploy part of its forces to cover the cordon.

"Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Volyn and Chernihiv regions. That is, those regions of Ukraine that border Belarus. It is these regions that are facing the threat of hostilities involving the Belarusian troops, which will automatically divert a part of the AFU to cover the border," the expert believes.

However, according to him, even if Lukashenka manages to mobilize 30,000 people, it is not enough for a war against Ukraine. It takes time to train them. If the Belarusian military are killed in the war with the AFU, the Belarusian leader will face a serious blow to his ruling regime.

"But again, 30,000 men, even if Lukashenka mobilizes some people, are not enough. Besides, the mobilized have to be trained for a month or two. I don't think that Lukashenka will use them in the same way as the Donbass mobics who were taken from the Philharmonic and thrown as "cannon fodder" to Mariupol, where they were mowed down by hundreds. If masses of coffins go from Ukraine to Belarusian towns and villages, the consequences for Lukashenka will be dire," Zolotarev said.

The political scientist also added that despite the control of the Belarusian society by the state, there is a limit to everything. The idea of invading Ukraine has no support in Belarus. Lukashenka understands the situation and will try to avoid Minsk's full-scale involvement in the war.

"Although the Belarusians are disciplined and obedient, there is a limit to everything. The idea of war is not popular among the Belarusians. Lukashenka understands it very well, that's why he will maneuver and wriggle," stressed Andrei Zolotarev.