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Ukrainian Colonel: Offensive From Belarus Will Become New Chornobaivka For Occupiers

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Ukrainian Colonel: Offensive From Belarus Will Become New Chornobaivka For Occupiers
Petro Chernyk

A military expert assessed the likelihood of creating a new front.

Ukraine is preparing for a possible expansion of the battleground beyond the east and south, where the heaviest fighting is currently taking place. According to the Ukrainian military, Russia is able to decide on this with the support of representatives of the Axis of Evil – Iran and North Korea.

In an interview with Glavred, a military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernyk told where the Russian Federation can deploy a new front, when Ukraine can start using the F-16 and under what conditions it is possible to achieve a turning point in the war before spring.

– General Naev announced preparations for the possible expansion of hostilities beyond the south and east. Which direction, in your opinion, can the occupiers consider as a priority for a possible offensive?

– Going beyond the local bridgehead is only possible if the Russians dare to strike again from the north, from Belarus. However, this is also quite unconvincing, because they do not have the weapon potential for this, only the human resource. Let me remind you that the north of Ukraine is an area with many forests and swamps, so the Russians, if they decide to launch a second offensive, will only be able to move along roads. This is crazy to them because we have learned to cover roads. Ukraine also ranks second in the world in terms of Javelin reserves.

– Observers write about the operation of electronic warfare from the territory of Belarus after a massive drone attack on Kyiv a few days ago. What do you think Russians can prepare for?

– Don’t confuse shelling and electronic warfare – these are different things. The Russians have about 30 different electronic warfare systems. Without exception, all weapons, especially missiles and the Shaheds, also perform radar functions. The task of these weapons is to prevent countering hostile missiles and the Shaheds. For example, the Russians have the Murmansk system, which can operate at a distance of up to 5000 km (at least that’s what they declare). Therefore, the Russians will continue to wage electronic warfare. We are still losing it.

– You said that Belarus is the only option for expanding the front by the Russian Federation. Are there conditions for such an attack? Putin recently visited Minsk. Could the Russian and Belarusian dictators agree on something there?

– You can expect anything from crazy people. Let’s recall Chornobaivka. The Russians controlled the right bank of the Kherson region and deployed weapons and personnel in the same place more than 20 times. No one would have done this being sane but not the Russians. Only God knows their intentions.

– What consequences could the expansion of the front have for Ukraine?

– Let's go in reverse. We withstood the beginning of the full-scale war when we did not have enough weapons and good air defence systems. We did not expect a strike at all, while the Russians used the best weapons and trained personnel they had against Ukraine. They failed then. So what are they counting on now? In the north, there is a wide branching of minefields, the so-called Ukrainian Mannerheim Line. If the Russians decide to launch a second offensive in the north, it will be madness. It will not be subject to comprehension from the point of view of common sense.

– How, in your opinion, can the situation at the front develop this winter? Are there any possible “surprises” by Russia before spring?

– There will be no surprises – they used everything they could except weapons of mass destruction. We are getting into a routine, and we will have to destroy the demarcation lines every day in a regime of permanent demarcation lines, because it is unlikely that the front line will move until we have sufficient aviation that would allow Ukraine to gain superiority in the air, and until we have a sufficient number of long-range missiles with which we can destroy all their echelons. After all, everything is delivered to the front in trains mostly, and only then, on the ground, they reload trucks. That is, we need to destroy everything so that cartridges, shells, and even food and warm clothes do not reach the Russian soldiers at the front. Only under such conditions is a turning point in the war possible.

I believe that we can start using the F-16 jets at the end of winter already. But we'll see how and when this happens.

– The Pentagon and the EU countries are already talking about reducing Western assistance to Ukraine. Do we have an alternative, and do we have the opportunity to at least partially replace Western weapons?

– The Ukrainian defence industry is gradually reviving, but Western officials have not spoken out loud about reducing aid. Large tabloids are mostly talking about it. It’s very doubtful because we already have dozens of confirmed enemy disinformation cases. Only statements by Biden, Macron, Scholz or Sunak on reducing aid can be considered a weighty argument.

– Due to the fact that elections are planned in Russia next year, they are already talking about a possible nationwide mobilization. How much can the situation at the front change in the spring?

– If the Russians do this, it will be difficult for us. But we have no choice – if we lose, they will bring a new Holodomor to us. The answer is the quantity and quality of weapons we will have. Not by different types, because here we are at the top, because everything that the allies could provide to us has already been provided to us – the allies have nothing new to offer us now. We need a lot of F-16 jets, a lot of air bombs and long-range missiles. When the Americans fought with the regime of Saddam Hussein, they used more than 600 long-range missiles in a month and a half, and sometimes the United States fired from 20 to 100 such missiles per day. Whereas Ukraine has only two or three confirmed cases of the use of such weapons. And the sooner we have such weapons, the easier it will be for us.

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