Political Scientist: Belarus Has Real Chance To Join The EU

Belarusians want to be part of the European community.

Political scientist Katia Glod spoke about whether Armenia can leave the CSTO and join the European Union. Could this become a successful example for Belarus in the future?

— In recent years, Armenia has followed a more pro-European course, starting with the fairly democratic elections of Pashinyan (the country’s prime minister — edit.), — says Katia Glod, an expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, on the air of “Ordinary Morning.” — Armenia moved further and further away from Russia and closer to the EU.

The economy of this country is completely dependent on Russia, a large number of labor migrants work in Russia, so economically Armenia cannot completely move away from the Russian Federation. But in terms of its values and where the country wants to go, Armenia has decided — this should be the European Union.

Nevertheless, the expert points out, Armenia is in the CSTO. At the same time, the organization did not provide it with any assistance or support in the war with Azerbaijan.

— Therefore, there is no point in being in the CSTO for Armenia. And if there was a procedure for getting out of there, I think it would have gotten out.

But since economic ties are glued to Russia, simply leaving the CSTO would mean an economic blockade. Therefore, de facto, Armenia does not participate in the CSTO, just as the CSTO does not help Armenia. Hence Pashinyan’s statement: he realized that there was nothing to lose and he could talk about his claims and pain, hoping, of course, that Russia would somehow change its attitude.

Although, I think that Pashinyan assesses the situation quite realistically and understands that today it is beneficial for Russia to support Azerbaijan in many respects. De facto, we see the dying of the CSTO, and Armenia has quite seriously begun to separate from the Russian course.

Glod does not rule out that Armenia may join the European Union in the future. The political scientist explains her assumption by the fact that after the start of a full-scale war in Ukraine, the European Union realized: it is necessary to more actively promote its values and help countries that accept them, but lag behind in some respects.

— I wouldn’t be surprised if Armenia receives candidate status within a few years. Which means good news for Belarus, adds the political scientist.

In the future, Glod believes, Belarus will also be able to join the EU:

— In the USA and Europe, Belarusian society is considered the same as Ukrainians and Moldovans. Belarusians want to be part of the European community and the 2020 elections clearly showed this. Therefore, Western officials in Brussels say that if changes occur in Belarus, they hope that our country will become part of the European family. And this is not a theoretical perspective.

If we had a different government and political course, Belarus could definitely become a member of the EU. And if Belarusians have a desire, then the chance to join the EU is very real.

At the same time, our situation is more complicated than that of Armenia. We are geographically closer to Russia, and with the arrival of Lukashenka, Belarus has close ties with the Russian Federation in economics and politics. Therefore, it will be more difficult for Belarus to abandon this (close ties with Russia — edit.) if over time the government of Belarus changes and the country decides to join the EU.

I think that the documents that we have already signed with Russia and the existing economic ties will force both the government and Belarusians to think ten times about what is more profitable for us: to be tied to Russia or to go to the European Union?

Here the question is, rather, not of values, but of pragmatism. If ties are severed and people still decide to move to the West, there will be a moment like in 2014 between Ukraine and the EU, when the Ukrainian people wanted to join the EU, but Yanukovych, under pressure from Russia, refused to sign an application for membership, and then the Crimea began. I think something similar could happen to Belarus if it tries to retreat.

But there will be many unknown factors: we don’t know what kind of Russia will come out of the war, who will replace Putin, what the Russian army will be like,” the expert concludes.