Roman Bezsmertnyi: Military Situation In Belarus Is Getting Worse

Lukashenka is creating force grouping for operations against neighbouring states.

Former Ukrainian Ambassador to Belarus Roman Bezsmertnyi wrote in his article for the nv.ua website that the military situation within Belarus is getting worse:

“Belarus is more and more turning into a training ground (training and armed) for the Moscow Fuhrer. Belarus is increasingly turning into a platform full of weapons, where weapons are being transported, repaired, supplied, produced, and so on.

The worst is that two points a clear in all these actions.

The first is that they are training combat-ready manpower, the troops for the war of Russia against Ukraine.

The second is the formation of its own potential in order to carry out operations against neighbouring states.

The Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties indicate that when signs of a threat arise, the diplomatic corps must take measures to evacuate people, even part of the personnel (all this is carefully scheduled) in order not to expose a potential threat to citizens.

It is obvious that information pressure and response actions can and should be interpreted as signs of a threat. Therefore, relevant statements have been made.

There were very few employees left. Since a part of the diplomatic corps has left Belarus every year since 2014, this was especially true for children, wives, families of diplomats.

Why was the decision made again? Because the tension is rising.

The likelihood of using the territory of Belarus as a platform for attacks not only against Ukraine but also against the Baltic States and Poland is growing (I emphasize this). This is evaluated because it is clear that such decisions are being made.

Belarus is more and more turning into a training ground for the Moscow Fuhrer.

At the same time, this means that diplomatic missions are switching to other ways of working. The operational staff is still there, they continue their work.

Options for further developments. I predict the continuation of the current dynamics until the rupture of diplomatic relations. It will lead to the fact that a number of states will break off diplomatic relations with Minsk.

Minsk has not just become a satellite. It is becoming one of the founders of the aggressive Minsk-Moscow-Tehran axis. Especially when Belarus became a transit area for deliveries of drones and ammunition from Iran to Moscow. So, it is obvious that the tension is growing and it was necessary to think about the personnel of the embassies, about the people who are there.

The visit of Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijarto shook up the information space in Minsk a bit. Because the visit of the EU Minister of Foreign Affairs to Minsk is a unique phenomenon. Although the reports that he came there to discuss negotiations cannot be true. He came to solve simple issues related to the provision of fuel and lubricants, because there are problems in the light of developing oil processes. Energy support is the second question. Minsk offers electricity at dumping prices. But how will they deliver it? Well, except that the Poles will make a certain compromise (this has already happened). By the way, here we can see our interest to some extent. Because the problem with energy supply also concerns us.

It is necessary that people objectively assess the situation regarding the threat of an offensive in general.

I don't think we should expect significant ground military operations until the green leaves appear in the spring. After that, sabotage groups will appear. Rocket attacks will continue, although they will become less intense. Putin's Reich not only talks about the construction of plants but also increases the production of drones in Iran. After the bombing carried out by Israel two weeks ago, these factories are rapidly resuming in order to fulfil contracts for the supply of missiles, including sufficiently powerful ones, for Russia.