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Mission Impossible: Details On Russian Offensive In Eastern Ukraine

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Mission Impossible: Details On Russian Offensive In Eastern Ukraine

The occupiers chose the time and place unsuccessfully.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the start of a counteroffensive by Russia in the Luhansk region. Russian troops gain in the northwest of Svatove in the area of Kupyansk and Dvorichne.

There is a “maximum aggravation” in the Kreminna axis. There are fierce battles in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. The Russians are trying to capture Vuhledar and Bakhmut.

The website Charter97.org looked at what is known about the attempts of the occupiers to seize the east of Ukraine.

What is the Kremlin Preparing?

Andriy Chernyak, a spokesman for the Defence Intelligence Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, said that Putin ordered his troops to seize the entire territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine by March.

Western media, citing sources in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, also report on the upcoming offensive of the occupying army in eastern Ukraine. On February 5, the British edition of the Financial Times reported that the Russian offensive would begin within 10 days.

"Given that they are living for symbolism, they will try to do something by February 24," Defence Minister Aleksiy Reznikov told the BFMTV French TV channel, referring to the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion.

The Telegraph writes that Putin is preparing a "new blitzkrieg", trying to get ahead of the supply of long-range missiles, tanks and other armoured vehicles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The article reads that Russia has mobilized significantly more than 300,000 troops. We can even talk about half a million new fighters.

Ukrainian intelligence believes that in addition to an offensive in the east, the occupiers may decide to conduct a landing operation in the south or north of Ukraine.

“If we are talking about a classic landing operation it always can pose such a risk. Either from Belarus, or an amphibious assault, if we are talking about Odesa,” spokesman of the Ukrainian Defence Intelligence Andrey Yusov said.

Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki also does not rule out that the occupiers will attack from the territory of Belarus.

“Gerasimov, the head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, needs to attack from two or three different axes. I think that the Ukrainians cannot rule out an offensive from Belarus to the northern part of Ukraine,” the Polish Prime Minister said in an interview with the German publication Bild.

Meanwhile, Russian troops are fortifying in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine. According to the ISW, the Russians are constructing fortifications to further strengthen Russian positions along the T0401 highway between Polohy and Tokmak.

Military analysts come to the conclusion that the Russian army will inflict the primary blow upon the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Also, the occupiers may try to recoup for the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region by launching an offensive in the Lyman axis. At the same time, they could deliver a distracting strike from Belarus.

Escalation in Kreminna and "Verdun Meat Grinder" Near Vuhledar and Bakhmut

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a report over the past 24 hours reported that the enemy continues to concentrate its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivsk axes in the areas of Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Opytne, Marinka and Vugledar.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes about the beginning of a Russian counteroffensive in the Luhansk region. The head of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, said on February 8 that “maximum escalation” was observed in the Kreminna axis, and Russian troops were trying to break through the Ukrainian defences in this area. If we could say that the Armed Forces of Ukraine encircled Kreminna back in mid-January, controlling the main routes of the city, then the occupiers have managed to push back the Ukrainian troops.

Military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko noted in his commentary for Charter97.org that the occupying troops concentrated the largest grouping of troops in the Kreminna area, about nine thousand of troops:

"I am talking about airborne troops, paratroopers and airborne assault units."

Several Russian military bloggers have circulated unconfirmed footage of unidentified units from the Central and Western Military Districts crossing the north-south Zherebets River in the western part of the Luhansk region.

Russian milbloggers report successful operations in the Kupyansk and Lyman axis. However, the former chief of the “DPR” terrorists, Igor Girkin, believes that the Russian occupiers have not achieved obvious success:

“Apparently, our troops managed to oust the Armed Forces of Ukraine tactically due to superiority in artillery. But there is no serious progress, it was not possible to occupy any settlements in the Kharkiv region. The artillery is intensively shelling the rare positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area.

On the sector of the front west of Kreminna, fighting continues with varying success (this time ours are attacking). Advancement in the wooded area in the floodplain of the Seversky Donets has no strategic prospects. Probably, our command is trying to move the front from Kreminna as much as possible in order to secure this important road junction.

Fighting for Bakhmut continues in the Donetsk axis. According to the ISW, Russian forces have made marginal advances north of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora and Zaliznyanske (10km north of Bakhmut), in the Stupky area of northern Bakhmut, and southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske.

However, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that nobody would surrender Bakhmut. The Ukrainian defenders will fight as long as they can.

The battles for Vuhledar escalated. The occupiers are making attempts to conduct tank breakthroughs to overcome Ukrainian defences. However, the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine successfully stop the attacks of Russian armoured vehicles. It is reported that Russian troops have lost more than 30 armoured vehicles in recent days.

Mission Impossible: Can the Occupiers Succeed?

British intelligence notes that Russia chose not the best time for an offensive. Warming is expected next week in the east of Ukraine where the occupiers were prepared for the primary blow: the above-zero temperature will replace the frosts. Thus, the vehicles of the invaders run the risk of simply getting stuck in mud.

“However, political or operational options may outweigh these fears, as Russia demonstrated when it unleashed the invasion in late February 2022,” British intelligence writes.

Military experts note that Russia has big problems with military equipment and ammunition today. Therefore, they expect to solve problems at the expense of the infantry.

“They are using their manpower, and then they send the Wagnerites and mobilized troops. Whoever survives will continue to fight, but a significant part of them will die or get injured,” said Ukrainian Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko also commented for Charter97.org that the Russians had chosen a bad time and place for the Russian counteroffensive.

“If we are talking about the fact that the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation has the goal of launching an offensive in the Eastern axis, especially targeting Lyman, then military operations may intensify. However, the place and time are not chosen in the best way,” the analyst said.

“I think this offensive will be limited. There will be no epic and global battle. Also, the actions of the enemy will meet a number of problems, ranging from natural conditions to the landscape. Also, it is still not completely clear to me: how an aggressive offensive can be linked to the situation south of Kreminna. The Verehinske forestry is under the control of the AFU control there. The occupiers will not be able to pass through it in some rapid way,” Kovalenko added.

Oleksandr Kovalenko also believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine retain the opportunity for a counterattack in the Luhansk region.

“They also did not resolve the issue with Belhorivka, which is a good a base the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive there.”

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