‘Discontent And Whispers In Corridors Began’

The illness and disappearance of Lukashenka are becoming of crucial importance.

Lukashenka did not appear for five days. On May 9, the unhealthy-looking dictator appeared at a parade in Moscow. Since then, no events with his participation have been held.

On May 1, a meeting was supposed to be held at the Palace of Independence with the participation of Lukashenka on the topic of corruption and arrests of doctors in recent weeks. However, the meeting was cancelled. Yesterday, Lukashenka's cortege, accompanied by a helicopter, urgently arrived at a special clinic in Drazdy.

The udf website asked experts: what could be the political consequences of Lukashenka's "disappearance"?

“Discontent is starting. There are whispers in the corridors. How to live after? Who will replace him?"

"It was very important for him to demonstrate loyalty to his overlord," political scientist Anatol Kotau noted in the context of Lukashenka's trip to Moscow.

“The absence of Lukashenka would be too obvious against the background of the arrival of the leadership of the former USSR countries of Asia. The refusal was unacceptable and no one would take it into account. They would just remove him. And that means the end of the regime,” said Kotau.

Why does not state propaganda show Lukashenka working taking into account all the rumours about his grave condition?

“I think it's because they have nothing to show. Everyone saw him in Moscow and Minsk. The previously recorded footage would have been too much of a contrast compared to what it was a few days ago. They are unlikely to show him before putting him on his legs,” said Kotov.

“His absence will have quite serious consequences. Discontent is starting. There are whispers in the corridors. How to live after? Who will replace him? It turns out that he is not eternal, but who will cover them? Who will solve all the issues? And it turns out that it's soft inside. Bulldogs are fighting under the carpet. The longer the pause, the more serious the conversations. Although, everyone is afraid to speak loudly so far, because it could be a "test". There are also conspiracy theories: What if he was poisoned or infected? Who could do it? The Kremlin. It's scary," Kotau said.

“Showing unhealthy Lukashenka means to reinforce the rumors”

Political blogger and historian Alexander Friedman noted that Lukashenka, after being invited to the parade in Moscow, had no choice. He had to go.

“It was very important for the Russian authorities that the largest possible number of post-Soviet leaders be present on Red Square on May 9, because Putin's speech was built around Russia as the legal successor of the Soviet Union that defeated fascism. The only leader who could come, but did not come, was Ilham Aliyev, who found an excuse, the 100th anniversary of his father's birth. Lukashenka was, perhaps, the easiest prey for the Kremlin: in comparison with other rulers of the post-Soviet countries, his degree of dependence is the highest. I think he would have been at the parade in Moscow, regardless of his health issues. He had no choice, he couldn't refuse the invitation while he could physically stand on his feet,” Friedman said.

Lukashenka has not been seen in public for three days. Why, despite the mass of rumours about his serious condition, state propaganda did not show the politician working?

“Perhaps he really is in such a condition that they don’t want to show him. Showing him in a like that only reinforces the rumours. Although, probably, Lukashenka is unpleasant that people are discussing the state of his health. Moreover, this discussion has reached a new level: they are already discussing possible successors,” Friedman said.

“The more Lukashenka is absent, the more tension will be,” Fridman believes.

As the Charter97.org website reported, the dictator could not walk 300 meters at the parade in Moscow on May 9 — Putin’s guards had to give him a ride. In addition, a piece of fabric, similar to a bandage, was noticed on Lukashenka's hand. And in the evening, the dictator did not make his traditional speech at the laying of wreaths at the Victory Monument in Minsk.

Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Gordon believes that Lukashenka could have been poisoned and will die soon.

Yesterday, on May 13, Lukashenka was urgently taken to a special clinic in Drazdy. The dictator has not appeared in public for the fifth day.