Why Did Russian Generals Start Talking About Suwałki Corridor?

They could be preparing the “Wagnerites” for a completely different operation.

On July 16, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Colonel General Andrei Kartapolov, formerly Deputy Minister of Defense, told the astonished viewers of Vladimir Solovyov’s regular program that the relocation of Wagner group mercenaries to Belarus is a kind of Putin’s “subtle move”, the purpose of which is to capture Suwałki corridor: “... The blow fist is ready, it will take this miser corridor in a matter of hours. And here again we left them (the West — edit.) behind. Preparations for this action are going, according to the Colonel General, “quietly, calmly, thoroughly and gently”.

General Kartapolov's statement brings to mind the well-known phrase from Jaroslav Hašek's immortal novel: “In a lunatic asylum, everyone could say whatever came into his head, as if in parliament.” And, indeed: high-ranking military men, having become deputies of the State Duma, often amaze listeners and viewers with reflections and revelations that testify to, putting it mildly, non-standard thinking.

It turned out, however, that General Kartapolov was not alone. For several months now, the military circles have been discussing the question: how to protect the Kaliningrad exclave, and whether it is possible to do this at all.

By default, it is assumed that this territory will have to be defended either from Poland or from Germany, which in fact do not encroach on it at all.

True, they sometimes think about what to do with the former East Prussia if Russia falls apart. However, this question, although interesting, is clearly not very relevant.

Back in March 2023, the Kremlin Snuffbox Telegram channel reported that losses in the special military operation forced the group deployed in the Kaliningrad exclave to be cut by about half. And in May, according to this channel, “the number of combat-ready units (in Kaliningrad — edit.) dropped to a minimum: everyone who somehow knew how to fight was sent to Ukraine.” At the same time, there were reports that two scenarios were being developed for creating a land corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad through Lithuania or through Poland, providing for a breakthrough of the border and the passage of equipment from Belarus.

Finally, just a few days before the rebellion of the “Wagner group”, the same Kremlin Snuffbox channel told that a certain report prepared by a group of military, economic and political experts was going around in the corridors of power in Moscow. It talks about the steps that can be taken if the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is successful.

First, Abkhazia may be declared part of Russia. This will expand the territory of Russia, show the electorate that the Russians do not abandon their own, and also lead to the emergence of a new resort area for state employees to replace the Crimea which is becoming too dangerous.

Secondly, Russian troops may return to Karabakh. The idea is typical of a general: in this case, Russia will quarrel with not only Azerbaijan, but also with Turkey, there will be serious problems with the bases in Khmeimim and Tartus, and indeed a kind of “second front” may arise.

And, finally, the third option is to force Belarus to “lay” a passageway to Kaliningrad through the so-called Suwałki corridor, that is, along the border of Poland and Lithuania. The authors of this idea even took into account that these two countries are members of NATO, and an invasion of their territory could lead to war with the North Atlantic Alliance. But, according to the unnamed authors of the mythical report, if the breakthrough is quick and decisive, then NATO simply will not have time to react, and then, when the corridor is laid, it will be too late. After all, winners are not judged.

In other words, the idea of a breakthrough into the Kaliningrad exclave did not seem to belong to General Kartapolov, but, at least, wandered in the minds of Russian military and political scientists. This idea acquired its practical shape after the Wagner rebellion on June 23–24. But does it have any chances for implementation in practice?

Wagner in Belarus

The relocation of Wagner PMC to Belarus has created a new political situation in and around this country. By the end of July, about five thousand well-trained fighters appeared in Belarus, not controlled, or at least not completely controlled by the local authorities. And on August 8, according to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov, the number of the “Wagnerites” reached 6.5 thousand people. Lukashenka and his camarilla cannot but worry about the prospect of this force interfering in internal Belarusian affairs, either on orders from Moscow, or on the initiative of Prigozhin. The prospect of drawing Belarus into the war without Lukashenka's consent may cause no less concern in Minsk. It is possible that, among other things, this concern, and not just the desire to create an additional threat to the West, may be related to Lukashenka’s words that he was “stressed by the Wagnerites who are begging to go to the West,” as well as information stuffing that appears from time to time that the mercenaries were allegedly returning to Russia. The last such reports appeared on August 8 with a reference to the American Institute for the Study of War, but were refuted by the ISW the next day.

The power potential of the “Wagner Group” in Belarus should not be underestimated. 6.5 thousand soldiers will be enough to form 12-13 full-strength battalions or, for example, two motorized rifle brigades.

In terms of combat potential, they are comparable to the Belarusian ground forces, which number 11.7 thousand people in four mechanized and two artillery brigades. Their combat training, according to many experts, leaves much to be desired, so if the Wagnerites go out into the street, it is not known who will prevail.

There is another aspect. The Wagner Group relocated to Belarus without heavy weapons. Therefore, many experts say, they do not pose a particular threat to neighboring states and the Belarusian army: going with machine guns on tanks and infantry fighting vehicles is below average pleasure. However, at the beginning of this year, the Belarusian army itself had more than 490 tanks and about 900 armored fighting vehicles. At the same time, as a rule, one mechanized brigade has only one tank battalion, that is, a little more than 30 tanks. This means that 300-350 tanks and several hundred armored fighting vehicles are located at storage bases, where the “Wagnerites” can take as many of these weapons as they need, either by force or by order of Lukashenka.

War, provocation or acts of sabotage

Of particular concern in Poland and the Baltic states is the prospect of the realization of the threats of General Kartapolov, that is, the invasion of significant forces of “Wagnerites” in the area of the Suwałki corridor, where the shortest distance between the borders of Belarus and the Kaliningrad exclave in a straight line is only about 65 kilometers. But, most likely, the invasion forces, if we imagine its realism, will move not over rough terrain, but along roads: for example, along the Druskininkai-Veisejai-Ladziai-Kalvaria route. In this case, they will have to walk about 100 kilometers. If they do not meet resistance, they will be able to go this way in 2-2.5 hours.

Of course, the “Wagnerites” will meet resistance, and the resistance will be strong. Polish żołnierzi will come to the aid of Lithuania, a NATO ally. And the ground forces of Poland have 58,000 personnel, equipped with approximately 650 tanks and 1,500 armored combat vehicles. That is, it would be better for the same “Wagner” to not even try to “take in a matter of hours” the miser Suwałki corridor.

But in this case, the question arises: why, in fact, Russian generals suddenly started talking about breaking through the Suwałki corridor and creating a passageway from Belarus to the Kaliningrad exclave? After all, even they should understand that it is one thing to march a hundred kilometers, and another to maintain control over a relatively narrow strip of land under the onslaught of obviously superior enemy forces. In the first case, success is extremely unlikely, but theoretically conceivable. Even if this escapade fails, it is possible to arrange a loud propaganda noise, award the survivors with orders and medals, and declare the dead heroes of Russia. But in military terms, the breakthrough of several assault groups of “Wagnerites” from Belarus to Kaliningrad does not matter.

In the second case, that is, if a more or less stable barrier is created between Poland and the Baltic states, Russia will receive a significant military advantage, since the latter will be cut off from the main territory of NATO. If Moscow decides to attack them, NATO troops will not only have to hold back the attacking Russian troops, but also forcefully break through the barrier belt stretched between the Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus. However, in order to create and maintain such a belt, much more forces and means are required than the “Wagner group”, the Belarusian army and the Russian troops remaining in Kaliningrad and near it.

The same applies to the boastful statements of the “Wagnerites” and their Russian patrons about the march to Rzeszów, where the main airfield is located, which receives a large amount of military aid for Ukraine from the Western allies. They will hardly manage to pass a dozen or two kilometers out of more than 200 that separate Brest from Rzeszów, when they will be liquidated by Polish troops.

Therefore, the only explanation suggests itself: talking about breaking through the Suwałki corridor, marching on Rzeszów, and so on is aimed at diverting the attention of both the general public and the leadership of the Central European states from something else that may have a certain military significance. An analysis of reports of possible provocations planned by the “Wagnerites” against Poland, Lithuania or Latvia leads to the same conclusion. Usually it was about attempts to break through the border barriers by groups of migrants, which are interspersed with dozens or even hundreds of armed “Wagnerites”. Suppose they break through, start shooting, Polish or Lithuanian border guards and soldiers will answer, kill half, the rest will run back to Belarus. After a couple of such clashes there will be no desire to break into Poland, Lithuania or Latvia among migrants, and even among the mercenaries themselves. But à la guerre comme à la guerre. “We are responding very decisively to these Russian and Belarusian provocations, the instrument of which is the Wagner group,” said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

The tasks that Moscow sets for the “Wagnerites” in Belarus, it seems, are not at all a breakthrough in the Suwałki corridor, but a massive sending of sabotage groups to blow up trains carrying military aid to Ukraine, destroy the airfield in Rzeszów, which is a pain in the neck of Russian military command. On the air of the Russia-1 TV channel, a certain Shpakovsky, presented as a political scientist from Belarus, was frank: “Do you think that saboteurs will not pass in small groups and reach this Polish airfield? And believe me, the Belarusian border guards will not interfere with them. What are the legal grounds for this? People want to visit the European Union. The Poles themselves broke off all relations with us in the field of protecting state borders. I do not rule out that the partisans, people of good will, can arrange in this filthy Rzeszów, right in the airfield, that very famous bavovna. In order to call the “Wagnerites” people of good will, a remarkable fantasy is required, but, as you know, to each his own.

Yuri Fedorov, Novaya Gazeta Europe